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Week 8 NFL odds, picks: Jets rebound after terrible Monday loss and more of Tom Fornelli’s best bets

If given the option of going 3-0 in any given week for this column, or 0-3, I would choose to go 3-0. Unfortunately, after last week, I’ve now gone 0-3 twice in the last three weeks. Thankfully I got off to a hot enough start this season that we’re still breaking even, but I’m not here trying to break even.

Why be the 8-8 team when you can be the Patriots, right?

So in the words of Bill Belichick, we’re on to Week 8. Let’s try to get one of those 3-0 weeks we prefer this time.

Will Brinson, Pete Prisco and R.J. White broke down all the angles and picks you need to know for every game on Friday’s Pick Six Podcast. Give it a listen below, and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:

1. Jets +6 at Jaguars

I always like buying low on a team, and there’s no team lower than the Jets right now. Not only were they embarrassed on Monday Night Football by the Patriots on the field, but Sam Darnold was caught on mic saying that he was seeing ghosts on the field. His play would suggest he was trying to throw the ball to them as often as possible too. Anyway, the Sam Darnold we saw on Monday night isn’t the normal Sam Darnold. That’s not to say there aren’t picks in that arm — there are — but not to the extent of what we saw against New England. The Jets followed up a great performance against Dallas with a dud against New England. The real Gang Green is somewhere in between, and somewhere in between is a team that can go on the road and cover this spread against the Jaguars. While the entire world is focusing on Darnold, do you think people realize that Gardner Minshew has completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes each of the last two weeks? The spread suggests they haven’t.

Prediction: Jaguars 21, Jets 17

2. 49ers -5.5 vs. Panthers

I don’t want to be the guy betting against the 49ers right now. Like the Patriots, the 49ers are undefeated. They’ve also performed well against the spread. While only 4-2 ATS overall, the Niners have covered with ease for the most part. They didn’t cover against the Redskins last week, but that was in a monsoon, and it’s hard to take anything that happened in that game seriously. Now, Christian McCaffrey is going to present a problem unlike any the Niners defense has seen this season, but it’s good enough to take everything else away from Carolina. McCaffrey is great. Is he great enough to lead the Panthers to a cover by himself against this San Francisco defense? I don’t think so.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Panthers 17

What picks can you make with confidence in Week 8? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

3. Texans -6.5 vs. Raiders

Taking the Texans last week didn’t go my way, but I’m not backing off. I like the Texans at home in this matchup as it is, but there are other factors at play here. First of all, we don’t know the status of Oakland receiver Tyrell Williams yet. There’s a chance he could return from a bout with plantar fasciitis this week, which would be a boost to Oakland’s offense. Even if he plays, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be up to full speed yet. If he doesn’t play the Raiders’ best weapon in the passing game is Darren Waller, but while he’s good, Houston’s done well stopping tight ends. Finally, this will be the fifth consecutive game the Raiders have played on the road. I don’t care who you are, five consecutive weeks on the road — with a trip to London in the middle of it — is going to catch up to a team at some point. That was obvious last week when the Raiders looked awful coming off a bye. They might look worse this week.

Prediction: Texans 31, Raiders 14

Record Units

Last Week

0-3

-3.3

Overall

11-10

0.0

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