Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will host LaMarcus Aldridge and the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. The Heat will again be without Justise Winslow, who has already missed 15 games this season with a back injury. San Antonio, meanwhile, enters Wednesday’s matchup relatively healthy and has won three of its last four contests.
Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m ET from the AmericanAirlines Arena. Sportsbooks list Miami as five-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 221.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Spurs picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned over $2,000 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 12 on a blistering 28-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Spurs vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Spurs:
- Spurs vs. Heat spread: Miami -5
- Spurs vs. Heat over-under: 221.5 points
- Spurs vs. Heat money line: Miami -220, San Antonio +185
- SAS: The Spurs have the third-worst against the spread cover rate in the NBA.
- MIA: No team has covered the spread at home at a higher rate than the Heat.
Why the Heat can cover
The model is well aware that Miami has looked invincible when playing in South Beach. The Heat are 17-1 when playing at home, which is the NBA’s best home record. Their 76.5 percent home cover rate against-the-spread is the highest in the NBA, and the next-highest is 61.1 percent. Miami has benefited more from home court advantage than any team, and it’s not even close. The Heat have a -3 point differential when playing on the road, which swings all the way to +11.7 when playing at the AmericanAirlines Arena.
So, it seems safe to assume that Miami should get more than the traditional three-point bump when playing at home, and if just looking at the two teams’ point differentials, Miami has been 4.7 points better than San Antonio. Even so, Miami isn’t a lock to cover the Heat vs. Spurs spread on Wednesday night.
Why the Spurs can cover
The model has taken into account that the Spurs have played much better as the season has progressed. Their season-long numbers don’t look great — a 17-21 record has them ninth in the Western Conference and their -1.0 point differential ranks 16th in the NBA. The majority of that damage came during a brutal eight-game losing streak in November, though. From December on, San Antonio is 10-7 with a +3.1 point differential.
One reason for San Antonio’s in-season improvement is the play of DeMar DeRozan. After a slow start to the year, the four-time All-Star has averaged 27 points, six assists and five rebounds on 63.4 percent shooting over his past 10 games. If DeRozan can continue to play at that level on Wednesday, the Spurs might surprise Miami, just as they did Milwaukee and Boston last week.
How to make Spurs vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations.
So who wins Spurs vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Spurs spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
