Guardian writers’ predicted position: 10th (NB: this is not necessarily Jacob Steinberg’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 10th
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 500-1
Lukasz Fabianski proved excellent value for money after joining West Ham for £7m last summer. He was an ocean of calm behind his back four, barely put a foot wrong and even ended last season with numbers suggesting he was the Premier League’s safest pair of hands.
Only Neil Etheridge, relegated with Cardiff City, came close to matching Fabianski’s 148 saves. Yet if Alisson made only 76 saves, it was because those in front of him ensured that Liverpool’s brilliant Brazilian faced only 100 shots.
Perhaps it is unfair to compare West Ham with the European champions. So let’s look at teams who finished above them in the Premier League’s mid-table mini-league. Everton’s Jordan Pickford was worked 143 times. Rui Patrício, outstanding for Wolves, was called into action 147 times. Leicester’s Kasper Schmeichel faced 143 shots.
By contrast Fabianski was tested 206 times and although the Pole’s statistics were impressive, they were not enough to stop West Ham conceding 55 goals and finishing with a negative goal difference. Viewed in a harsh light, the figures begin to look like the reason why Manuel Pellegrini’s side fell short of seventh place.
With that in mind it might have made sense for Pellegrini to focus on improving his side’s defending this summer. West Ham have lacked a commanding central midfielder for years and it was an encouraging sign when they attempted to sign Barcelona’s André Gomes.
Yet Gomes chose Everton and West Ham’s next move was paying £24m for Villarreal’s Pablo Fornals, another creator to slot in alongside Felipe Anderson, Manuel Lanzini and Jack Wilshere, and the search for a screening player was put on hold. Fornals, who helped Spain win the Under-21 European Championship this summer, is more likely to frustrate opponents with piercing through-balls than perceptive interceptions.
The messaging changed. After a transitional first year it was said that Pellegrini plans to lift West Ham closer to the top six by playing on the front foot, with the manager following the arrival of Fornals by spending most of his remaining funds on a new striker, Eintracht Frankfurt’s Sebastien Haller.
It means West Ham remain difficult to read. There has been undoubted improvement under Pellegrini, who has the backing of the board, but the Chilean struggled to stamp out his side’s inconsistency. They mostly toiled against mid-table opponents, while humblings on the road against Burnley, Brighton and Cardiff exposed an inability to cope with physicality.
However Pellegrini’s approach often worked against the top sides. Although the former Real Madrid manager’s expansiveness backfired when Manchester City ran riot at the London Stadium and Chelsea punished his 4-4-2 system at Stamford Bridge, there were deserved wins over Arsenal and Manchester United, a worthy 1-1 home draw with Liverpool and an intelligent performance which made West Ham the first visiting team to win at Tottenham’s new ground.
Those performances raised optimism and there was much to admire about the way Pellegrini got rid of Marko Arnautovic last month, even though West Ham were disappointed that Shanghai SIPG paid only £22.4m for the disruptive Austrian.
Selling Arnautovic left West Ham under pressure to sign a striker. They had already shifted Andy Carroll and Lucas Pérez off the wage bill, leaving Javier Hernández and Jordan Hugill as their only senior forwards, and there was mild panic when Valencia beat them to the signing of Maxi Gómez from Celta Vigo.
Unlike in previous years, however, West Ham reacted decisively. Pellegrini and Mario Husillos, the director of football, pressed for Haller and David Sullivan, the powerful co-owner, agreed to break West Ham’s transfer record for a player whose fee could rise to €50m.
Haller is regarded as the complete striker because of his ability to score goals, create them and bring teammates into play. The 25-year-old is also bound to work harder than Arnautovic – no Bundesliga striker made more tackles per 90 minutes last season.
West Ham can sense a team slowly coming together. With Anderson, Fornals and Lanzini operating as a trio behind Haller, there could be plenty of fun – and plenty of frustration. Anderson, the gifted Brazilian winger, needs to push on after scoring 10 goals following his arrival from Lazio last summer and can be lazy when it comes to protecting his left-back. Fornals will need time to settle. It remains to be seen whether Lanzini will be the same after a serious knee injury.
Pellegrini will also have to be patient with Andriy Yarmolenko as the Ukrainian winger continues his comeback from an achilles injury and there is concern about what would happen if Haller were sidelined. Hernández is not robust enough and although the versatile Michail Antonio finished last season well, he can lack the nous to play up front. However the arrival of Albian Ajeti on deadline day should lighten Haller’s load. The 22-year-old Swiss striker scored 15 goals for FC Basel last season.
Yet there could be pressure on West Ham’s attack to flourish. In central midfield Declan Rice will look to protect the back four and ensure he keeps his England spot before Euro 2020. But while Robert Snodgrass never lets anyone down and Mark Noble remains a solid performer, it is surprising that West Ham are yet to find an upgrade on the latter. There is a lack of pace in the middle and gambling on Wilshere staying fit feels unwise, especially as an injury to the former Arsenal midfielder would push Carlos Sánchez closer to a starting spot following the sale of Pedro Obiang to Sassuolo.
Yet while Obiang’s exit has freed up space in the budget for incomings, with the departures of Edimilson Fernandes, Sam Byram, Adrian, Reece Oxford, Hugill and Samir Nasri also helping Pellegrini prune his squad, the concern is that it will still be too easy to get at West Ham’s back four.
That said Pellegrini has immense confidence in Fabian Balbuena and Issa Diop as a partnership in central defence. But he needs them to stay fit. Angelo Ogbonna has become a rickety presence, Winston Reid has not played since March 2018 because of a knee problem and West Ham were leaky during pre-season, conceding 12 goals in five games. Last weekend’s 2-2 draw with Athletic Bilbao convinced Pellegrini to dip into the market for another centre-back, with the promising 19-year-old Goncalo Cardoso expected to challenge Balbuena and Diop after his £3m move from Boavista.
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The full-backs also need to convince Pellegrini of their worth. Ryan Fredericks must work on the defensive side of his game if he is to keep Pablo Zabaleta and Ben Johnson out at right-back, while Aaron Cresswell and Arthur Masuaku are both much of a muchness at left-back.
Unless those flaws are eradicated it is difficult to see West Ham getting close to the top six. Yet there as many strengths as weaknesses and they have not had a better manager than Pellegrini in the Premier League era. Finishing as best of the rest should not be beyond them.
