DeMar DeRozan and the San Antonio Spurs (25-33) host Domantas Sabonis and the Indiana Pacers (36-24) on Monday. The Pacers enter Monday’s contest as winners of three straight and five of the past six games, while San Antonio is headed in the opposite direction. The Spurs have just three wins in the past 10 games, and they are likely to be without both LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) and Jakob Poeltl (knee). Victor Oladipo (knee) has been ruled out for Indiana.
Tip-off for this one is set for 8:30 p.m ET from the AT&T Center. Sportsbooks list Indiana as a 2.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points is 221 in the latest Pacers vs Spurs odds. Before you make any Spurs vs. Pacers picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It’s already returned well over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 19 a blistering 47-30 on all top-rated spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Pacers vs. Spurs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Spurs vs. Pacers:
- Pacers vs. Spurs spread: Pacers -2.5
- Pacers vs. Spurs over-under: 221 points
- Pacers vs. Spurs money line: Indiana -136, San Antonio +115
- IND: The Pacers are just 4-7-1 ATS since the start of February.
- SAS: The Spurs have covered just two of the past nine spreads.
Why the Pacers can cover
The model is well aware of how important missing Aldridge is for this particular matchup. The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in games Aldridge has missed or left early due to injury this season, and they’re 0-2 since his latest injury. Aldridge’s offense will be missed in a matchup against a Pacers squad ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. Indiana’s perimeter defense is terrific. They have several defenders capable of making life difficult on DeRozan and Dejounte Murray.
No team in the NBA takes more field goal attempts from 15-24 feet than the Spurs, and no team has held opponents to a lower field goal percentage from that range than the Pacers. The weakness of Indiana’s defense is on the interior. Myles Turner is a terrific individual shot blocker, but the Pacers have been susceptible to put backs and opposing roll men in the pick and roll. Without either Aldridge or Poeltl to exploit this weakness, San Antonio’s offense could struggle to put points on the board on Monday.
Why the Spurs can cover
Even so, Indiana isn’t a lock to cover the Pacers vs. Spurs spread. The model is well aware that the Pacers are coming off of one of their most inconsistent months of the season. They are just 4-7-1 ATS since the start of February, which resulted in a drop from the four seed to the six seed in the Eastern Conference standings.
San Antonio might be catching the Pacers at the right time, as they are in a bit of a transitional stage as they figure out their new rotation while gearing up for the playoffs. If Indiana is distracted from its opponent at hand, it could allow San Antonio to sneak up and cover as home dogs, especially with Oladipo on the bench for Indiana.
How to make Pacers vs. Spurs picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total with the simulations projecting that six players from each side reach double-digit scoring. It also says one side of the spread hits in 70 percent of simulations.
So who wins Pacers vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Pacers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
