NFL Week 12 odds, picks: Russell Wilson continues post-bye week dominance, Falcons stay hot against Bucs

Week 11 in the NFL certainly started off with a bang as the Steelers and Browns decided to make Thursday Night Football look more like Smackdown as the two clubs got into a melee in the closing seconds. While that was a shocking turn of events in its own right, from the gambling perspective, the 21-7 Browns win was just as surprising.

Heading into Week 12 we’ll be looking for a little less of players trying hit each other with helmets and more upsets that increase our win total on the year and fatten the wallets. On this slate there are two teams coming off byes that are in great positions to come out of the break with a win. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons are sneakily becoming one of the hottest teams in the NFL and appear well on their way to a third straight win.

Before we dive deeper into these picks, however, let’s see where we stand heading into Week 12.

Picks record

Straight up: 101-60-1
Against the spread: 74-86-2

Missing out on the Falcons road win against the Panthers was the pick that I’m kicking myself the most from. Paid really close attention to their Week 10 win against New Orleans and was impressed at not only how the defense was able to suffocate Drew Brees, but how Matt Ryan and the offense were able to put up points. Kyle Allen’s solid performance in Green Bay a few weeks ago coupled with the Falcons’ loss of Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman were the on-paper factors that made me choose Carolina, but should have went with the gut on that one.

The only miss that stings a bit more than that one, personally, is Phillip Rivers not covering against the Chiefs. That was a very winnable game for Los Angeles, but they couldn’t stack up enough positive plays.

Alight, let’s get to this week’s picks.

Buccaneers at Falcons

Point spread: Falcons -4.5

I have absolutely no clue what has gotten into the Atlanta Falcons, but they are looking closer to the team that went to the Super Bowl a couple years ago than the 1-7 team they were entering the Week 9 bye. Since that week off, Dan Quinn’s team has impressive back-to-back road wins against the Saints and Panthers where they’ve allowed a total of 12 points. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense has been able to put up points as well with Matt Ryan completing around 62% of his passes in this winning streak.

As for the Bucs, they seem to be limited with Jameis Winston under center and appear to be hitting a low point with their former No. 1 overall pick after he threw four picks against the Saints last week. Seems like their troubles are going to continue as they go on the road to face Atlanta.

The pick: Falcons 30-20 over Buccaneers

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Ravens at Rams

Point spread: Rams +3

The Lamar Jackson hype train is simply running too hot to turn away from. Not only does Jackson have this offense cruising, but the Ravens defense has been playing lights out, allowing just seven points to the Texans in Week 11. The Rams offense doesn’t instill enough fear in me to think that they’ll be able to keep up with Jackson, even if they are getting Brandin Cooks back in the fold and Todd Gurley seemingly turning a corner. Over their last two games, the offense has only been able to muster 29 total points, while the Ravens are averaging 45 points a game over that same two game span.

The Marcus Peters revenge game narrative is also a fun reason to double-down on Baltimore on Monday Night Football.

The pick: Ravens 40-24 over Rams

Giants at Bears

Point spread: Bears -6

The Mitch Trubisky experience seems to be coming to a close in Chicago. The Bears quarterback was put on the shelf in the final moments of their loss to the Rams in Week 11 and, while head coach Matt Nagy noted a hip injury, it had the feel of a benching for the former No. 2 overall pick. How the Bears handle Trubisky going forward is anyone’s guess, but I think this situation gets worse before it gets better. They’re reeling off that loss, while the Giants have enjoyed their bye week. New York hasn’t had a season to remember, but they have enough weapons to put up points against Chicago.

As long as Daniel Jones doesn’t turn the ball over — something that has been a big issue for him this season — I don’t see Trubisky lighting up what is a subpar Giants defense.

The pick: Giants 24-10 over Bears

Dolphins at Browns

Point spread: Browns -10.5

I admit that I may be sipping too much of the Fitzmagic Kool-Aid, but I love the spot they’re in this week, especially getting over 10 points against a struggling Browns team. They’re coming into this week after that melee revolving around Myles Garrett and Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph and I just feel like this is a team that is in the midst of a lost season. Cleveland was able to put up points against a strong Steelers defense, but a large part of their offense was thanks to Rudolph throwing four interceptions.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a much more capable quarterback and should be able to find plenty of success against a Browns defense that mediocre in terms of DVOA.

The pick: Take the Dolphins +10.5, Browns win straight up, 27-20

Seahawks at Eagles

Point spread: Eagles -1.5

While the Eagles desperately need a win this week to keep pace with the Cowboys in the NFC East, they are in a tough spot facing the Seahawks, who are coming off a Week 11 bye. Under Russell Wilson, Seattle is 5-2 after a week off (vis Seahawks Wire) and Wilson has completed 67.9% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and just one interception in those situations. I expect more of the same this week.

The pick: Seahawks 30-24 over Eagles