The average NBA team is scoring 111.5 points per game this season. It’s an impressive number, the highest since the 1970-71 season. One would likely expect a new sample of games to trend downward based on the sheer history behind that number. And yet, through 13 total games in the bubble, NBA teams are averaging 117.8 points per game in Orlando. That would not only be the highest-scoring season in NBA history but only two seasons ago, the average NBA team scored 106.3 points per game. Basketball changes quickly, but not that quickly.
There is some regression coming, but the Las Vegas books have overreacted to the hot start we’ve seen from scorers at Disney. The Mavericks and Rockets have the two best statistical offenses in the NBA this season. When they played on Friday, the Vegas point total was 229.5. Five of the six games being played on Sunday have higher lines set. Vegas wants to stop the bleeding on over bets, so if any unders stand out to you on Sunday, go for it. Now is your chance to take advantage of sloppy bookmaking. With that in mind, here are today’s best NBA picks.
Lines courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook
Sacramento Kings vs. Orlando Magic: Under 227.5
Again, you can’t go wrong with most of the unders on the board, but this one is the most enticing. The Magic scored 128 points against a Nets team missing practically every worthwhile defender on its roster. The Kings scored 120 points against the Spurs, but needed all five of their starters to make more than 50 percent of their shots. De’Aaron Fox set his career-high in scoring by five full points. Bogdan Bogdanovic hit six 3-pointers. Does that seem sustainable? Orlando (ranked No. 11) and Sacramento (No. 18) are both competent defensively. This one is going to be lower-scoring than Friday’s fare.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns: Mavericks -5.5
The Suns just allowed 112 points to a Wizards team missing its only two notable scorers in Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans. How much are they going to allow against a Dallas team that just dropped 149 on the Houston Rockets? Yes, they allowed 153 in that loss, but James Harden isn’t walking through that door this time. Dallas has held Devin Booker to right around his season averages this season. Without an offensive explosion, they just aren’t going to be able to keep up with the NBA’s best offense.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Boston Celtics: Celtics -4.5
This is just a nightmarish matchup for Portland. Damian Lillard ran roughshod over a young Memphis backcourt on Friday. On Sunday, he’s going to get 40 minutes of angry Marcus Smart. Jayson Tatum, meanwhile, is coming off one of the worst games of his career, but he was defended by Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo in that loss to Milwaukee. The Blazers hardly even have a small forward on the roster. Carmelo Anthony is likely to get that assignment. That isn’t going to go well.
Bubble picks record: 7-2
