The Denver Nuggets will take on the Miami Heat at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colo. Denver is 4-2 overall and 1-1 at home, while Miami is 5-1 overall and 2-1 on the road. The Heat have been solid against the spread this season (5-0-1), while Denver has been faring much worse (2-3-1). The Heat enter Tuesday’s matchup averaging 117.8 points per game, while Denver is averaging just 103.5. Denver is favored by 4.5-points in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds, while the Over-Under is set at 211.5. Before entering any Heat vs. Nuggets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. 

This model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. In fact, the model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated NBA picks. On top-rated NBA picks against the spread and on the money line alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has simulated Nuggets vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that Miami strolled past Houston with points to spare on Sunday, winning the game 129-100. It was a solid home upset over the Rockets as three-point underdogs. Miami forward Jimmy Butler looked sharp as he had 18 points along with nine assists and seven rebounds. Duncan Robinson also had a strong showing against the Rockets, finishing with 23 points and six rebounds. Goran Dragic gave Butler and Robinson solid support in Miami’s win over Houston, adding 15 points and four assists. Dragic has now scored 15 or more points in four of his first six games this season. 

Meanwhile, Denver secured a hard-fought 91-87 victory over the Orlando Magic in its last outing. Nuggets center Nikola Jokic finished with 20 points, seven rebounds and four assists, while Jamal Murray led the team in scoring with 22 points. For the season, Murray is averaging 18.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. 

A pair of offensive numbers to keep in mind before Tuesday’s tip-off: Denver has only been able to knock down 41.80 percent of its shots, which is the fifth lowest field goal percentage in the league. To make matters even worse for the Nuggets, the Heat rank second in the league when it comes to field goal percentage, shooting 48 percent from the field. 

So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.