The Miami Heat will host the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday in what will be the fourth game for both squads. Both teams sit at 2-1 and are undefeated against the spread to start the year. The Hawks are on the back end of a back-to-back and are a little bit banged-up. Alex Len and Evan Turner were dealing with injuries prior to last night’s loss to the Sixers, and either could sit on Tuesday. Atlanta also has limited the minutes of Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish while they recover from injuries, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them rest for Tuesday’s game. Miami, meanwhile, is getting reinforcements. Jimmy Butler has yet to play his first game as a member of the Heat due to the birth of his child, and his regular season debut will come in front of the home crowd on Tuesday night. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m ET from the American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list Miami as eight-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223.5 in the latest Hawks vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Hawks vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.

Now, it has locked in on Hawks vs. Heat. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model is well aware that Atlanta really struggled on the back end of back-to-backs last year, covering the spread just 41.7 percent of the time. A fatigued team is going to have a tough time dealing with Butler, especially when he has the additional motivation of playing his first home game for his new team. And with head coach Lloyd Pierce missing a few of his usual rotation players, this one could end up getting out of hand quickly. 

Trae Young has carried this team through three games, and that will definitely have to be the case tonight with Atlanta banged-up. Miami ranks inside the top-10 in defensive efficiency early on this season after ranking seventh last year, and the Heat just got their best individual defender back. Young shot just 28 percent from three on the back end of back-to-backs last year, so it is possible that a rested Miami team will be able to limit his impact. And if Miami can slow down the engine to this offense, the Hawks don’t have the supporting pieces to beat the Heat on the road.

But just because Miami has had more rest doesn’t mean it will cover the Heat vs. Hawks spread on Tuesday evening. 

The model also knows how much Miami struggled at home last year. They were one of just two teams to have a better record on the road than at home, and their 42.5 percent cover rate at home was the fifth-worst in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Hawks covered the spread in 58.5 percent of away games, the fourth-best mark in the league.

Atlanta’s young core has looked strong to start the season, highlighted by second-year phenom Young. He took home the Eastern Conference Player of the Week award after dropping 39 and 38 points in his first two games. On the year, Young is averaging 34 points, six rebounds, and nine assists, while hitting his threes at a 52 percent clip. He almost single-handily willed the Hawks past a tough Philadelphia squad on Monday, and he could do the same against Miami. 

So who wins Hawks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread cashes in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Hawks vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.