Final Four 2019: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech odds, top picks, NCAA Tournament predictions from model on 11-5 run

No. 2-seed Michigan State rolls into the 2019 Final Four off a memorable upset, but now must face the strangling defense of 3-seed Texas Tech. The Red Raiders allow 37 percent shooting and have frustrated each of their 2019 NCAA Tournament opponents with their length and on-ball harassment. It’s an 8:49 p.m. ET tipoff from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The Spartans looked shaky early in the NCAA Tournament 2019, but found their groove on the second weekend, dismantling LSU by 17 points and sending home Zion Williamson and the No. 1 overall seed Duke in dramatic fashion. Sportsbooks list the Spartans as 2.5-point favorites in the latest Texas Tech vs. Michigan State odds, down a half-point from where the line opened, with the over-under for total points scored set at 132.5. Before you make any Texas Tech vs. Michigan State picks or Final Four 2019 predictions, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It entered the postseason on an 11-5 run on top-rated plays, and It’s also on fire in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling Auburn’s huge upset of Kentucky in the Elite Eight and nailing 14 Sweet 16 teams. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has zeroed on on Michigan State vs. Texas Tech. We can tell you it is leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in Michigan State’s veteran-laden club and its tremendous unselfishness. The Spartans racked up a total of 40 assists in their wins over LSU and Duke, with guard Cassius Winston notching 18 of those. If anyone can solve Texas Tech’s fearsome defense, it’s Winston, who averages 18.9 points, 7.6 assists, and 3.0 rebounds. He played 79 of a possible 80 minutes last weekend.

Michigan State ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency, whereas the Red Raiders are less balanced. Moreover, Tom Izzo and company are an eye-popping 27-11 against the spread this season, compared to 19-16 for Texas Tech. They’ve covered all but once in 19 tries against teams like Texas Tech that win more than 65 percent of their games.

But just because the Spartans have an NCAA Tournament pedigree doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Texas Tech vs. Michigan State spread in the Final Four 2019.

The Red Raiders lead the nation in defensive efficiency and are allowing 57 points per game in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Big 12 Player of the Year Jarrett Culver, a future NBA star, leads an improving offense with 18.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Sharpshooter Davide Moretti nails 46.3 percent of his 3-point shots. Every program in the country looking for a new head coach will come after Texas Tech’s Chris Beard, a master tactician.

Texas Tech is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 games, including 11-1 versus winning teams.

Who wins Texas Tech vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas Tech vs. Michigan State spread you should back, all from an advanced computer model that’s up over $4,000 the past two seasons.