The race for the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft has tightened into a genuine debate, with front offices divided between Kansas guard Darryn Peterson and BYU forward AJ Dybantsa heading into March. Sources indicate NBA teams are splitting hairs between the two prospects, with the final decision likely coming down to the risk tolerance of whichever franchise wins the lottery.
Peterson entered the season as the consensus favorite at No. 1, widely regarded as the draft’s most gifted shot creator and perimeter shooter. But a frustrating freshman year marked by injury and illness has introduced uncertainty around his profile. He has shot just 32 percent over his past four games despite logging 30-plus minutes in each.
The central question surrounding Peterson is medical. NBA teams are withholding final judgment until they receive his health reports at the combine. Support for him as the most talented prospect in the class remains strong, but that assessment must be weighed against durability concerns.
“There remains a lot of NBA support for Peterson as the draft’s most talented prospect, but his freshman season has added complexity to the decision at No. 1,” according to league sources.
Dybantsa has capitalized on the opening. The 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 26.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists through 17 Big 12 games, leading the conference in scoring. His jump shooting has improved, and his decision-making has grown more polished as the season has progressed.
Many scouts believe Dybantsa’s two-way ceiling is the highest in the class given his 7-foot wingspan and physical tools. His ability to defend multiple positions gives him a profile some evaluators view as both safer and comparably explosive to Peterson’s.
BYU has dropped four of its last five games, leaving Dybantsa with an opportunity to strengthen his case on a postseason stage. A strong March run, particularly with improved defensive engagement, could prove decisive in the No. 1 conversation.
Cameron Boozer is a clear No. 3 in the class, but analytically minded teams could strongly consider him if his fit is clearly better for their existing roster.