In a battle of teams seeking their first victories of the 2019-20 NBA schedule, the Golden State Warriors will square off with the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green lead what should be a highly-motivated Warriors team, while there is some uncertainty about the best players for the Pelicans. Jrue Holiday is questionable with a left knee sprain and, with Zion Williamson still on the shelf with a knee issue, New Orleans could be short-handed. Golden State isn’t without its own issues, operating without both Kevon Looney (hamstring) and Willie Cauley-Stein (foot). Tip arrives at 8 pm ET at the Smoothie King Center. New Orleans is a 3.5-point home favorite, down a half-point from the opener, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 236 in the latest Warriors vs. Pelicans odds. Before you make any Pelicans vs. Warriors picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.

Now it has locked in on Warriors vs. Pelicans. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows that the Pelicans have a few advantages, namely in their ability to speed up the game. New Orleans has an edge in terms of quality depth, deploying as many as 12 players on a nightly basis, while the Warriors are short-handed after salary cap restrictions limited the team’s flexibility. Even if the Pelicans are missing Holiday, they have a bevy of scoring options, headlined by Brandon Ingram, and there is enough floor-spacing to challenge any defense. Beyond that, New Orleans has multiple options to deploy in defending Curry, while the Warriors don’t have the offensive capability to avoid one-on-one match-ups in the same way as previous seasons.

Just because it has a few edges doesn’t mean New Orleans will cover the Warriors vs. Pelicans spread on Monday.

The model is also keenly aware that New Orleans isn’t the same team without a healthy Holiday and, when you add in Williamson’s absence, the Pelicans’ roster takes a hit. Alvin Gentry’s team lands in the bottom-five in team defense so far and the Warriors still have the potent duo of Curry and Draymond Green. Offense hasn’t been the biggest issue in Golden State’s winless start and, with the two best players on the floor wearing Warriors jerseys, they hold the talent advantage in some respects. That edge only becomes greater if Holiday is unable to play for New Orleans, making the injury report important to monitor.

Both teams should be able to get to the rim, though, with the Warriors allowing more than 80 percent of their opponent’s shots to fall through the net in the basket area this season. The Pelicans have been slightly better, but Golden State should be highly motivated after an embarrassing loss on Sunday, theoretically leveling the playing field.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pelicans vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.