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Virginia vs. Texas Tech odds: 2019 National Championship game picks, top predictions from model on 11-5 run

A year after becoming the first 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history to fall to a 16-seed, the Virginia Cavaliers are looking to complete the ultimate redemption story. They’ll get their chance on Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis when they take on 3-seed Texas Tech in the 2019 NCAA Tournament national championship game. Clutch shooting and top-notch defense are hallmarks for both programs, and one will claim its first national title in program history. The Cavaliers are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Virginia vs. Texas Tech odds after the line fell as low as -1. The over-under for total points scored is 118, one of the lowest ever in championship game history as these slower-paced, defensive-minded squads battle. Before making any Virginia vs. Texas Tech picks of your own, scope out the 2019 March Madness championship game predictions from SportsLine’s proven college basketball model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It entered the postseason on an 11-5 run on top-rated plays, and It’s been spot-on in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling Auburn’s huge upset of Kentucky in the Elite 8 and nailing 14 Sweet 16 teams. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Texas Tech vs. Virginia. We can tell you the model is leaning over, but it has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model knows Virginia has more talent than what the Cavaliers are credited for. Known for its elite defense and meticulous style on offense, UVA actually has at least a pair of legitimate NBA prospect in De’Andre Hunter (14.9 points per game), who is widely projected as a possible lottery pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, and point guard Ty Jerome (13.5), who is also viewed as a possible first-round pick.

Additionally, Kyle Guy, fresh off hitting three of the most clutch free throws in NCAA Tournament history in Saturday’s Final Four thriller against Auburn, has been red-hot the last two games, averaging 20 points and 6.5 rebounds in the Elite Eight and Final Four. He also shot at least 42 percent from the field in both wins. That trio, plus a seasoned cast of supporting players, gives Virginia top-end talent. Combined with coach Tony Bennett’s system and a strong focus on defense, the Cavaliers have all the pieces to cut down the nets on Monday in the NCAA Tournament 2019 title game.

But just because the Cavaliers have a top-shelf defense doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Texas Tech vs. Virginia spread on Monday.

The model also knows that no team is as hot as the Red Raiders, who have won 14 of their last 15 and covered 11 straight versus winning teams. Texas Tech, which leads the nation in defensive efficiency, has held four of its five 2019 NCAA Tournament opponents to 58 or fewer points and just harassed Michigan State into 31.9 percent shooting from the floor, the Spartans’ season-low.

Leading scorer Jarrett Culver was held to 10 points in the national semifinal, but senior Matt Mooney matched his season high with 22 points as he drained 4-of-8 three-pointers. While UVA’s last three wins have been decided by five or fewer points, the Red Raiders’ closest call was a six-point win over another 1-seed, Gonzaga.

Texas Tech (31-6) executes when it matters most. In the second half against the Spartans, Texas Tech scored 38 points in just 30 possessions, continuing a pattern of impressive second-half play.

Who wins Texas Tech vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas Tech vs. Virginia spread you should be all over, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.  

EltasZone Sportswriters, Sports Analysts, Opinion columnists, editorials and op-eds. Analysis from The Zone Team