On Saturday night, UFC returns to Brazil for UFC Fight Night 164 from Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo. The card is headlined by longtime middleweight contender Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza making the jump to light heavyweight to take on Jan Blachowicz, one of the top contenders at 205 pounds.

Souza (26-7) is one of the best fighters to have never challenged for a UFC championship, finding himself constantly near the top of the middleweight rankings but stumbling against elite competition. After trading wins and losses over the past few years, he made the decision to test out a change of scenery in jumping into the deep waters at light heavyweight. Two of Souza’s four career losses have come via split decision. Against Yoel Romero at UFC 194 in December 2015, Souza found himself on the wrong side of a split decision most media members disagreed with. His UFC 224 bout with Kelvin Gastelum in May 2018 also didn’t go his way, though there was a dead split among media members over who truly deserved the nod. His most recent fight was a clear decision loss to Jack Hermansson in April.

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In July, Blachowicz (24-8) rebounded from a TKO loss to Thiago Santos by scoring an emphatic knockout of former middleweight champ Luke Rockhold. Prior to the Santos loss, Blachowicz was riding a four-fight winning streak after seemingly figuring things out in the Octagon after a 2-4 start to his UFC career. He currently sits as the No. 2-ranked fighter in the light heavyweight division in the CBS Sports UFC divisional rankings.

Brazilian legend and former UFC light heavyweight champ Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (26-11) fights in the co-main event looking to improve on his 4-1 record in his five most recent fights. Rua will face Paul “Bearjew” Craig (12-4), who has finished his opponents in all 12 of his professional victories.

Here’s the fight card for UFC Fight Night 164 with the latest odds from William Hill.

UFC Fight Night 164 card, odds

UFC Fight Night 164 viewing information

Date: Nov. 16 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Ginasio do Ibirapuera — Sao Paulo, Brazil
Stream: ESPN+

Prediction

Jan Blachowicz vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza: We have several recent examples of men making jumps to face legit contenders within their new weight class. Darren Till succeeded in jumping from welterweight to middleweight to face Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 244 earlier this month. Chris Weidman had a big crash-and-burn moment jumping from middleweight to light heavyweight against Dominick Reyes. Blachowicz isn’t likely to be able to submit Souza, but he is a legitimate light heavyweight talent. Souza has been in there with more talented fighters than Blachowicz in his career, and isn’t facing a big size disadvantage. That said, I’m taking the established light heavyweight here over the 39-year-old making the jump. Pick: Blachowicz via UD

Who wins Souza vs. Blachowicz? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC Fight Night 164, all from the expert who’s up nearly $19,000 on MMA in the past year.