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UFC Fight Night 153 odds, predictions: MMA expert picks Anthony Smith vs. Alexander Gustafsson

UFC light heavyweight contenders face off in the marquee match of UFC Fight Night 153, a 13-match show from Stockholm, Sweden on Saturday. The preliminary fights start at 10 a.m. ET with the main card set for 1 p.m. ET. The main event pits local favorite Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson (18-5) against American Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (31-14), two of the world’s top-five light heavyweights. Each was unsuccessful in recent title bouts with Jon “Bones” Jones, and a loss Saturday puts them well back of any future championship dreams. Gustafsson, the No. 2 contender behind only Daniel Cormier, is the sportsbook favorite at a price of -330 (risk $330 to win $100) while No. 4 Smith is at +270 (risk $100 to win $270) in the latest Gustafsson vs. Smith odds. Before you make any UFC Fight Night 153 picks, be sure to see the predictions from SportsLine MMA expert Kyle Marley.

Marley won the first-ever “ToutMaster” UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past year, $100 bettors who have followed Marley’s picks are up over $22,000.

At UFC Fight Night 152, Marley called for an upset by Grant Dawson (+120), saying Dawson’s pace and wrestling ability could get him a surprise win over favorite Michael Trizano. Dawson choked out Trizano in the second round for a nice payout.

Three weeks ago at UFC 237, Marley advised SportsLine members that Alex Volkanovski (+120) would use his nonstop pressure to upset UFC icon Jose Aldo (-140) in a main-card featherweight bout. That’s exactly what happened as Volkanovski controlled the action from the opening bell, and Marley’s followers pocketed another easy winner.

At UFC Fight Night 151, Marley went a stunning 11-1 and netted $100 bettors nearly $1,000 in profit in a single evening. His selections included accurately predicting that Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (+110) would pull the upset of Al Iaquinta (-130) in the main event. Anyone who has followed Marley’s advice is way up.

Now, with UFC Stockholm fast approaching, Marley has carefully studied every matchup on the UFC Fight Night 153 card, identified the best value in the UFC odds and released his MMA picks for every single fight. He’s sharing them only over at SportsLine.

Marley knows that both Gustafsson and Smith see Saturday’s main event as a final opportunity to get back on track for a rematch with Jones for the title.

In March, Smith went toe-to-toe with Jones, arguably the best fighter in the world, in a unanimous decision, but Smith called his effort “embarrassing.” That ended a streak of three-straight wins against other contenders. He’s looking to get back on track against Gustafsson, who has lost twice to Jones, including in his last bout in December. Gustafsson had won 15 of 16 matches but has now lost four of seven, three of which were title bouts.

Marley has broken down the fight, considered the odds and is confidently all over one side of Saturday’s main event. You can see his Gustafsson vs. Smith pick at SportsLine.

One of Marley’s UFC Fight Night 153 picks that we can tell you: He is backing Darko Stosic (+105) to get the better of Devin Clark (-125) in a light heavyweight clash on the undercard.

Stosic (13-1) opened as a huge -265 favorite but the line has shifted so dramatically, he’s now the underdog. Now the American Clark (9-3) is favored. Clark has better wins under his belt but Marley believes Stosic has the capacity to end things early.

“Clark’s chin is his biggest weakness and Stosic’s biggest strength seems to be his power. It may only take one shot for Stosic to win this fight and if Clark stays standing for too long I think that will happen,” Marley told SportsLine. “I am going to take the underdog to get a knockout win in round 1 or 2.”

Marley also has UFC on ESPN+ 11 picks locked in for Gustafsson vs. Smith and every other fight on this stacked card. Those UFC picks are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins dos Gustafsson vs. Smith? And how does each fight end? See the UFC Fight Night 153 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over Saturday at UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith, all from the incomparable expert who’s up more than $22,000 in MMA bets in the last year.

UFC on ESPN+ 11 card

Main Card

Smith vs. Gustafsson (-330)
Latifi vs. Oezdemir (-125)
Manuwa vs. Rakic (-225)
Amirkhani vs. Fishgold (-115)
Gaigos vs. Hadzovic (-175)
Teymur vs. Sung (-150)


Akman vs. Khandozhko (-190)
Lansberg vs. Evinger (-265)
Ray vs. Santos (-245)
Hein vs. Camacho (-110)
Santana vs. Malecki (-120)
Stosic vs. Clark (-125)
Belluardo vs. Alvarez (-125)

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