Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje have varied skills as mixed martial artists, but their similarities are what make them two of the UFC’s most popular fighters. They are relentless, fearless and willing to accept damage in order to deliver shots of their own. The lightweight contenders meet on Saturday, May 9 in the main event of UFC 249. The top-ranked Ferguson seeks his second interim lightweight title, as his much-anticipated bout against sitting champ Khabib Nurmagomedov is on hold indefinitely.
The fourth-ranked Gaethje earned the opportunity on the strength of three straight knockout victories. Ferguson is a -170 favorite (risk $170 to win $100), while Gaethje is a +150 underdog in the latest UFC 249 odds at William Hill. In the co-main event, champion Henry Cejudo (-240) defends the bantamweight crown against Dominick Cruz (+200). Before you lock in any picks for the UFC 249 card, make sure you check out the latest UFC predictions from SportsLine MMA analyst Kyle Marley.
Marley won the first-ever “ToutMaster” UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past year, $100 bettors who have followed Marley’s picks are up nearly $19,000.
At UFC 248, Marley told SportsLine members to expect middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (-275) to retain his title against Yoel Romero (+235) by unanimous decision. He argued that Adesanya would pick Romero apart on the feet and was proven correct, as the champ dominated the action with leg kicks while dodging Romero’s explosive power. Also, Marley went a stunning 9-2-1 at UFC Fight Night 170, the last UFC event. Anyone who has consistently followed Marley is way up.
Now, with UFC 249 fast approaching, Marley has carefully studied every matchup on the card, identified the best value in the UFC odds and released his MMA picks for every fight. Those selections are only available at SportsLine.
Gaethje vs. Ferguson preview
Marley knows the 36-year-old Ferguson (25-3) comes in on a 12-fight winning streak and hasn’t lost since May 2012. He is revered for his fearlessness and ability to win through a variety of MMA disciplines. Six of his last eight victories have come by stoppage, including a TKO of Donald Cerrone last year and a submission of Anthony Pettis in October 2018. The top-ranked Ferguson briefly held the interim belt after beating Kevin Lee by submission in October 2017.
Ferguson faces a challenge from the No. 4-ranked Gaethje (21-2), the former World Series of Fighting champion who has been waiting for a title opportunity amid a crowded division. It is believed the winner of the May 9 main event will get to challenge the Russian champ for the unified title.
Gaethje, 31, is known for his knockout power and relentless aggression. He started his UFC campaign with a 1-2 mark, but has since won three straight bouts by first-round knockout. He stopped Cerrone in September 2019. Gaethje has 18 knockouts among his 21 career MMA victories and only gone to a decision twice in his career. See Marley’s picks for Ferguson vs. Gaethje and every fight on the upcoming UFC 249 card here.
Top UFC 249 predictions
We’ll share one of Marley’s UFC 249 predictions here: He is backing Fabricio Werdum (-310) to get a stoppage victory against Aleksei Oleinik (+255) in a matchup of veteran heavyweight contenders.
Werdum (23-8-1) is returning from a more than two-year layoff from the Octagon. The 42-year-old former champion is 3-2 in his last five bouts since losing the title to current champion Stipe Miocic in May 2016.
Oleinik (58-13-1) is widely regarded as one of the top submission artists in the history of the heavyweight division. The 42-year-old snapped a two-fight losing streak with an armbar submission of Maurice Greene in January.
“I hope we see this fight hit the mat because I would love to see a grappling match between these two,” Marley told SportsLine. “Werdum is miles ahead on the feet, and I would pick him in a grappling match as well, so I have to lean with him as the pick.”
How to make UFC 249 picks
Marley also has strong picks for Ferguson vs. Gaethje and every other bout on the UFC 249 card. He’s also backing one man who’s “the scariest fighter alive.” You can only see every pick for every UFC fight here.
Who wins Ferguson vs. Gaethje? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every UFC 249 fight, all from the accomplished expert who’s up almost $19,000, and find out.
UFC 249 odds
Tony Ferguson (-170) vs. Justin Gaethje (+150)
Henry Cejudo (-240) vs. Dominick Cruz (+200)
Francis Ngannou (-270) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+230)
Calvin Kattar (-245) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+205)
Anthony Pettis (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+110)
Greg Hardy (-180) vs. Yorgan De Castro (+160)
Fabricio Werdum (-310) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+255)
Carla Esparza (-145) vs. Michelle Waterson (+125)
Jacare Souza (-125) vs. Uriah Hall (+105)
Vicente Luque (-265) vs. Niko Price (+225)
Bryce Mitchell (-175) vs. Charles Rosa (+155)
Ryan Spann (-380) vs. Sam Alvey (+300)
