Guardian writers’ predicted position: 6th (NB: this is not necessarily Nick Ames’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 8th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 40-1

Make it two that got away. The manner in which Serge Gnabry escaped Arsenal’s clutches is well known. Gnabry had verbally agreed a new contract before travelling to the 2016 Olympics with Germany, but instead signed for Werder Bremen and the rest is painful modern history. But it is less well documented that Kingsley Coman could have been an Arsenal player, too. Coman was leaving Paris Saint-Germain when he and his agent visited Arsenal’s training ground in 2014, with the club willing to pay a compensation fee in the low hundred-thousands and a seven-figure salary. But the transfer did not get over the line; instead Coman and Gnabry were fundamental to the outcome of this year’s Champions League and one figure close to both missed deals is only half-joking when he says he has to switch channels within five minutes when Bayern Munich pop up on his television.

The point of the story? It is that, for all the recriminations of the last half-decade, a couple of relatively minor deviations might have seen Arsenal’s recent past look decidedly different. They need these things to start going their way and that is why the vision and clarity shown during Arteta’s first eight months are tantalising. Arteta’s intention to become a top coach was well trailed but, as many others have found, walking the talk can be rather more difficult. So if he is for real, as seems increasingly certain, the possibilities begin to appear limitless.

Arteta could thank Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Arsenal’s FA Cup win, given the captain’s doubles against Manchester City and Chelsea, but could also reflect on tactics that had deservedly outdone superior sides. The troubled squad he inherited has been treated with varying levels of light and shade. Matteo Guendouzi and Mesut Özil were left in no doubt about what happens to anyone Arteta feels has not nailed their colours to the cause, but he has seemingly persuaded a previously sceptical Aubameyang to see out his top-level playing career at the club. Granit Xhaka was also convinced to reverse from the exit door while Willian, who should be an excellent addition even if a three-year contract makes the eyes water, has admitted to being enamoured of Arteta’s plans.

It appears Arteta has an uncanny ability to bring others with him. While Aubameyang’s chip at Wembley ensured Arteta’s Arsenal won a major trophy ahead of schedule, the coming season will show whether the vessel is a hydrofoil or a paddle steamer. Arteta has no interest in seeing Arsenal become accustomed to playing like underdogs, as they did so successfully in those big wins – Liverpool were another scalp – at the end of 2019-20. He wants to see them dominate the ball and be aggressive with it; to pass and probe as forcefully as, in the weeks after the Covid-19 shutdown, his forwards pressed defenders when out of possession.

That will take time and Arteta is likely to find one transfer window is not enough. He has, in theory at least, the hands-on role in recruitment that he wanted, with Raul Sanllehi taken out of the picture. Willian’s versatility and fluid movements will help an attack that, with Özil requiring a truly Lazarus-like comeback to regain favour, otherwise sorely lacks guile. Gabriel Magalhães looks sure to arrive from Lille and, with William Saliba now available, Arsenal have the kind of young, dominant, athletic centre-back options an often chaotic backline has sorely lacked. But players will have to depart if a troubled midfield is to be supplemented with top-level talent. It is hard to see their longstanding pursuit of Atlético Madrid’s Thomas Partey bearing fruit, for example, unless at least one of Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira departs. The summer has been expensive and Arsenal, who recently made 55 redundancies in non-football areas, have to start bringing money back in.

So Arteta may find more compromises have to be made: a few more grinding wins over the Champions League qualifiers or afternoons where, if the ball will not do the work, the most important thing is to keep the back door bolted. He has shown he can get results; now he must keep them coming while turning Arsenal into a living iteration of his blueprint. Bayern’s blistering wingers may have long gone, but Arteta is capable of banishing those regrets for good.

Quick guide

Arsenal’s history in 100 words

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They have retained the same colours but Arsenal are, in other ways, chameleons. First they swapped south-east London, where they were born, for Highbury in 1913. Then they became entertainers, trailblazers and innovators under the inspirational Herbert Chapman. Fast-forward half a century and they had become the “boring”, attritional but storied grinders of the 1980s and early 1990s. Now they are expected to live up to the near-impossible standards set by Arsène Wenger in the first decade of his reign, the “Arsenal way” cast as a sleek and stylish brand of attacking football that has materialised only in spurts since their move to the shiny Emirates in 2006.

Photograph: PPP

The manager

On the touchline Arteta usually plumps for brooding all-black getup, effortlessly straddling the gap between “slung together” and “painstakingly thought-through”. He covers plenty of ground and rattles through his body of foreign languages: English, Spanish, French and Portuguese feature in his exhortations.

On Zoom Punctual, personable and sometimes perfunctory. Arteta tends to give off the air of a man fulfilling a commitment but understands the power of the medium too. His views on Guendouzi, Özil and even the club’s ambition were aired eloquently and – sometimes – bluntly.

The key

Anyone citing the importance of Aubameyang would be excused for feeling like a stuck record but, assuming his deal goes through as expected, he will be fundamental to anything Arsenal and Arteta achieve. If you are moulding a new, young defence and a more balanced midfield it helps to have the division’s best striker.

The owners

Stan Kroenke and his firm, Kroenke Sports and Entertainment, have been at the helm since 2011. Recent seasons have seen a rise in “Get out of our club” chants, with a decidedly un-touchy-feely approach to ownership doing the Kroenkes few favours. The hope is this season begins to reverse the decline they have overseen.

Young blood

Arteta has spoken glowingly about Reiss Nelson, saying he has “the potential to do whatever he wants”. It is time for the 20-year-old to deliver: he has bundles of talent and showed it in patches last season, scoring against Liverpool and shining in the cup against Leeds and Portsmouth. But can he impose himself consistently?

New blood

The arrivals of Willian and – hopefully – Gabriel have been well trailed. A less high-profile newcomer, Andreas Georgson, formerly Brentford’s head of set pieces and individual development, has been enlisted to keep Arsenal sharp and smart from free-kicks and corners.

Kit story

It is a story as old as the hills – or at least dating to the club’s foundation in 1886, when Nottingham Forest donated a set of dark red shirts and white shorts after a plea from two former players who had wound up with the Gunners. Herbert Chapman thought of the sleeves, and the lighter shade of red, years later.

Notes from an empty stadium

The jokes about an empty Emirates differing little from the full-fat experience were worn out quickly. There have not been many innovations to separate Arsenal’s home from the rest, save for the usual tailored seat coverings and pre-match music playlists.

Euros vision

A major tournament in 2020 would probably have come too soon for Bukayo Saka. Next summer, though, is another scenario entirely and if he continues to grow in stature it is hard to see him not getting an England call.