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Patriots vs. Giants odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from proven model on 85-57 run

The Patriots will try to stay on cruise control when New England hosts the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. Nobody has been able to solve New England’s top-ranked defense, which held the Redskins to 220 yards last Sunday in a 33-7 victory. And of course, Tom Brady is still dominating opponents, moving into third place on the league’s all-time passing list last week. The Giants stumbled for the first time with rookie quarterback Daniel Jones calling the shots, as they fell to the Vikings 28-10. Kickoff for Thursday Night Football is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. Brady and company are 17-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Giants odds, up a half-point from the opener, while the over-under for total points scored is 41. Before you enter any Giants vs. Patriots picks, see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 23-14 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an 85-57 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 5, it nailed the Rams (+1.5) staying within the spread against the Seahawks and the Texans (-4) covering with plenty of room to spare against the Falcons

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has simulated Giants vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine. 

The model knows the Patriots are allowing just 6.8 points and 238.4 yards per game, and they have 11 interceptions and 24 sacks to lead both categories by four. Linebacker Jamie Collins has done a little bit of everything, with 4.5 sacks and three picks. Devin McCourty has four interceptions to lead a pass defense that allows just 160.4 yards per game. New England had six sacks last Sunday, with Dont’a Hightower, Chase Winovich and Michael Bennett making Colt McCoy’s day miserable. 

Brady, who is 11-1 on Thursday nights, now has 71,923 career passing yards, trailing only Peyton Manning (71,940) and Drew Brees (74,845) on the all-time list, and he isn’t slowing down. He threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns against the Redskins and has 1,409 yards and 10 TDs this season. Wide receiver Julian Edelman has been his safety blanket, catching 29 balls for 336 yards, while Josh Gordon has chipped in 19 for 280.

But just because New England appears to be rolling through another regular season doesn’t mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Giants spread on Thursday Night Football. 

Jones has thrown for 760 yards and four touchdowns in his three starts. Jon Hilliman and Elijhaa Penny will flank him in the backfield this week since Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Wayne Gallman (concussion) have both been ruled out. Penny averaged five yards per carry last week and caught one pass for nine yards. The Giants only have a point differential of minus-5.6 this season despite the host of injuries.

The Giants’ defense has struggled, but New York does have the talent to make plays, with linebackers Markus Golden (4.5 sacks) and Ryan Connelly (one sack, two INTs) anchoring the unit. The Giants also could make a splash on special teams, with Corey Ballentine returning two kicks for 76 yards Sunday, including a 52-yarder. 

So who wins Giants vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Giants vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

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