After watching the Raiders pull off an upset in Week 10, it appears the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are starting to take them more seriously.
In the opening odds for Week 11, the Raiders have opened as a monstrous 10.5-point favorite over the winless Bengals. Although there are teams that are double-digit favorites nearly every week in the NFL, it’s almost never the Raiders, who are rarely ever favored by 10 or more points.
As a matter of fact, over the past 15 years, the Raiders have only been a double-digit favorite a total of two times before this week and both of those came during their playoff season of 2017. Two years ago, the Raiders were a 14-point favorite over the Jets in a Week 2 game and a 10-point favorite over the Giants in a Week 13 game. Although the Raiders won both games, they went just 1-1 against the spread (ATS).
Although the Raiders are getting a game against a laughably bad Cincinnati team, the Bengals might not be a pushover this week and that’s because they actually have one of the most impressive West Coast streaks going of any team in the NFL. To find out what that streak is and to check out other trends for Week 10, let’s get to the early odds.
A wild Week 10 is almost in the books and there’s a lot to go over. Fortunately Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and be sure to subscribe right here for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
By the way, if you’re thinking about laying any money on this week’s slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 11 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 11, make sure to click here.
Alright, let’s get to the odds.
NFL Week 11 early odds
(All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. All betting trends reflect regular season games only)
Steelers (5-4) at Browns (3-6), Thursday
Opening line: Browns -3
This has been one of the most lopsided rivalries in football for nearly a decade. Since 2010, the Browns are just 2-15-1 straight-up against the Steelers (8-9-1 ATS), and if you look at more recent history, it’s actually uglier than that, with the Browns going 0-7-1 straight-up in their past eight games against Pittsburgh (3-4-1 ATS). Of course, if there’s one time when the Browns might actually have a chance to beat Pittsburgh, it’s when the Steelers are playing in a primetime game on the road. The Steelers are just 1-5 straight-up in their past six primetime games played away from Heinz Field (3-3 ATS). That being said, the Steelers seem to dominate divisional rivals in this situation. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 straight-up in their past eight primetime road games played against AFC North teams. Also, the Browns are 2-6-1 ATS on the season, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Bengals (0-9) at Raiders (5-4)
Opening line: Raiders -10.5
The Bengals might be the worst team in football, but they somehow almost always manage to cover the spread on the road. Although the Bengals have lost 10 straight road games, they’ve gone 7-3 ATS in those games. The Bengals have also been printing free money for anyone who bets on them when they play on the west coast. Over the past 10 years, the Bengals are a perfect 8-0 ATS (6-2 straight-up) in the pacific time zone. That total includes three wins and covers against the Raiders. The Raiders probably won’t be too intimidated though, and that’s because they’re 6-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past seven home games. The Raiders are 6-3 ATS on the season, which is tied for the second best mark in the NFL.
Cowboys (5-4) at Lions (3-5-1)
Opening line: NO LINE
This game is the only one of Week 11 that doesn’t have an opening line and that’s because oddsmakers don’t have any idea if Matthew Stafford will be playing or not. Stafford’s streak of 136 consecutive starts ended on Sunday due to a back injury. No matter who the quarterback is, the Cowboys could be the smart bet here and that’s because they’re 5-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past six games on the road against NFC teams. As for the Lions, they’re 0-4 ATS in the their past four games overall (1-3 straight-up).
Jaguars (4-5) at Colts (5-4)
Opening line: Colts -3
For the past four years, the easiest way to burn your money has been betting on the Colts against the Jaguars. Since 2015, the Colts are an ugly 0-7-1 ATS against Jacksonville (2-6 straight-up). If the Colts are going to end that ugly streak, this could be the year they do it and that’s because they’ve been dominating AFC South teams. In their past seven games against divisional opponents dating back to last season, the Colts are 6-1 straight-up and 5-1-1 ATS. As for the Jags, they’re just 2-8 straight-up in their past 10 games against AFC South teams, although one of those wins did come against the Colts. One thing to keep an eye on in this game is whether the Colts will have Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer as their starting quarterback. Also, Nick Foles will be on the field for the Jags for the first time since Week 1.
Bills (6-3) at Dolphins (2-7)
Opening line: Bills -6.5
The Dolphins have somehow turned into the hottest team in the AFC East. Not only do they currently have the longest winning streak in the division, but they’ve also covered the spread in five straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. If any team can cool the Dolphins off, it might be the Bills, and that’s because they’ve won four of their past five against Miami (3-2 ATS). The Bills are also 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven road games (4-3 straight-up).
Broncos (3-6) at Vikings (7-3)
Opening line: Vikings -9.5
Whenever you have Mike Zimmer coaching against an AFC team, it’s almost always a safe bet. Since hiring Zimmer in 2014, the Vikings have gone 16-6 ATS against AFC teams. That number is even better in Minnesota, with the Vikings going 8-2 both straight-up and ATS in their past 10 home games against AFC teams. As for the Broncos, they’re 1-5 straight-up in their past 6 road games (2-4 ATS) and they haven’t scored more than 20 points in any one of those games.
Saints (7-2) at Buccaneers (3-6)
Opening line: Saints -4.5
One reason it was such a surprise that the Saints lost to the Falcons on Sunday is because New Orleans is usually pretty unstoppable in November. Including that loss, the Saints are now 8-3 both straight-up and ATS in their past 11 November games. The Saints are also 6-3 ATS on the season, which is the second best mark in the NFL this year. On the other hand, the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their past four games against NFC South teams. These two teams played back in Week 5 with the Saints covering as a 3-point favorite in a 31-24 win. As for the Bucs, they’re 5-2 ATS in the past seven games where they’ve been an underdog of four or more points (3-4 straight-up), but they’re also 2-7 ATS on the season, which is the worst mark of any team in the NFL this year.
Jets (2-7) at Redskins (1-8)
Opening line: Pick’em
The Jets playing an NFC team has basically been a disaster over the past few years for New York. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Jets are just 3-11 straight-up against NFC teams and 5-9 ATS (They’re just 1-4 ATS in their past five games against the NFC). That being said, that one cover did come this year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys in a game where the Jets were a 7-point underdog. As for the Redskins, they’re 0-3 ATS against AFC East teams this year. The Redskins also have an ugly record in home games, losing eight straight dating back to last season. In those eight games, they’ve gone 2-6 ATS.
Falcons (2-7) at Panthers (5-4)
Opening line: Panthers -6
The Panthers might be a six-point favorite in this game, but you might want to stay away from them in this spot, and that’s because they almost always seem to struggle against the Falcons. In the past seven meetings between these two teams, the Panthers have gone 1-6 both straight-up and ATS. The Panthers have also lost five of their past seven at home. As for the Falcons, they’re just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, but that one cover did come on Sunday when they beat the Saints as a 12.5-point underdog.
Texans (6-3) at Ravens (7-2)
Opening line: Ravens -4.5
No team in the NFL has been frustrating bettors at home more than the Ravens. Although Baltimore has been nearly unbeatable at home recently with a 7-1 record in their past eight games, they haven’t been able to cover the spread. In their past 10 homes games, the Ravens are just 2-8 ATS. As for the Texans, they’ve been a covering machine on the road, going 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 games (8-3 straight-up). The Texans are also 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall.
Cardinals (3-6-1) at 49ers (8-0)
Opening line: 49ers -13.5
The 49ers might have the best record in the NFL, but that doesn’t necessarily make them a safe bet against the Cardinals. As a matter of fact, they’ve been the opposite of a safe bet in their past few games against Arizona. In the past nine meetings between these two teams, the 49ers have gone 1-8 straight-up and 3-6 ATS. The 49ers have also gone 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings against Arizona. These two teams played back in Week 9 with the Cardinals covering as a 10.5-point underdog in a 28-25 Thursday night loss.
Patriots (8-1) at Eagles (5-4)
Opening line: Patriots -3.5
It’s not often that the Eagles are a home underdog, but when it happens, things usually get pretty ugly for them. In the past 12 games where Philly has been a home dog, they’ve gone 2-10 both straight-up and ATS. However, the Eagles have been on a roll at home lately, winning six of their past seven (they were favored in all seven games). As for the Patriots, although they didn’t beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, they do seem to dominate NFC teams in the regular season. In their past 12 games against NFC teams, the Patriots have gone 10-2 both straight-up and ATS.
Bears (4-5) at Rams (5-4)
Opening line: Rams -6.5
If there’s one time you want to bet on the Bears, it’s when they play in primetime. In their past seven night games, the Bears have gone 6-1 ATS, a total that includes a 15-6 win over the Rams last season in a game where Los Angeles was a three-point favorite. The Bears have also won six of their past seven games against the Rams, which includes an ATS record of 5-2. As for the Rams, they’re just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games against NFC North teams.
Chiefs (6-4) vs. Chargers (4-6) in Mexico City, Monday
Opening line: Chiefs -4.5
Andy Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 23-2 straight-up against divisional opponents and 18-7 ATS. That total includes going 9-1 against the Chargers the past 10 times these two teams have played (7-3 ATS). Another factor that’s not helping the Chargers is that L.A. has been horrible in primetime. In their past 15 night games, the Chargers have gone 4-11 straight-up and 6-8-1 ATS.
