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NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 3: Advanced computer model loving Steelers, Bengals

Through just three weeks of the NFL schedule, several teams have virtually eliminated themselves from postseason play, either by subpar play (Redskins), injuries (Jets) or looking ahead to the future (Dolphins). But several surprise teams are 2-0 heading into Week 3, among them the Baltimore Ravens, who rolled over the Dolphins by 49 in the opener and beat the Cardinals by six last week. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has seven passing touchdowns this season, tied for the NFL lead with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, whom he’ll face on Sunday. Kansas City is favored by 5.5 in the latest NFL odds, with a total of 52. Also undefeated are the Antonio Brown-less New England Patriots, who are favored by a mammoth three touchdowns at home against the Jets, one of the largest NFL lines of all-time. There are NFL spreads of all shapes and sizes this week, including two over 20 points. Before you make any Week 3 NFL picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the proven projection model at SportsLine.

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has absolutely nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season on a strong 17-10 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, it nailed the Seahawks (+4) covering against the Steelers and the Patriots (-18) covering a massive spread against the Dolphins with room to spare in Week 2.

The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has examined the latest Week 3 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its football predictions are in. One of the top Week 3 NFL predictions the model recommends: the Steelers (+6.5) cover on the road against the 49ers.

The Steelers were among the teams decimated by the quarterback injury bug in Week 2, as Ben Roethlisberger injured his right elbow and will require season-ending surgery. With Big Ben out, the Steelers will turn to Mason Rudolph, who threw for 112 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in the Week 2 loss to the Seahawks. Rudolph is in his second year in the Steelers’ system and has his top collegiate receiver, James Washington, in Pittsburgh. Running back James Conner is expected to be at full strength Sunday after suffering a knee injury.

San Francisco is 2-0, but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for just 463 yards and two touchdowns so far with two interceptions. The 49ers’ running back combo of Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert have been quietly effective, combining for 281 yards, but neither has found the end zone yet in 2019. The model projects the Steelers to cover the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, with the over (43.5) hitting nearly 55 percent of the time.

Another one of the Week 3 NFL picks from the model: the Bengals cover as six-point underdogs against the undefeated Bills at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at New Era Field. 

Cincinnati has been on the wrong end of a 21-20 decision to Seattle in Week 1 and a 41-17 score against San Francisco last week. The Bengals aren’t playing with the roster they expected to have, as first-round pick Jonah Williams is on injured reserve, while star wide receiver A.J. Green is out indefinitely following offseason ankle surgery. That said, Cincinnati has gotten 729 passing yards and four touchdowns from quarterback Andy Dalton and 11 catches for 270 yards and three touchdowns from wideout John Ross III. 

Buffalo is 2-0, but hasn’t gotten there against the best teams in the NFL, having squeaked past the Jets 17-16 in Week 1 and downing the Giants 28-14 last week, both winless teams. The model projects the Bengals to cover the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, while under (43.5) hits more than 55 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong pick for Rams vs. Browns on Sunday Night Football, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this week. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-7, 43)
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 45.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 52)
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6, 43.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 47)
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5, 43.5)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-21, 43)
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-22.5, 47)
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 48)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 45)
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 44.5)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 43.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 47.5)
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+4.5, 41)