NBA Playoffs 2019: Rockets vs. Warriors Game 5 picks, odds, and why a Houston flyer bet has all the value

After losing the first two games in Oakland, the Rockets have stormed back with two wins at home to tie their second-round series with Golden State 2-2 heading into Wednesday night’s Game 5. It goes without saying what a huge game this is, but just to put a number on it: In a 2-2 series, the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the series 82 percent of the time. Kevin Durant is cooking. James Harden is cooking. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are still due for a breakout shooting game. This one should be wild.

Below are predictions for the Game 5 spread, money line and over/under.

*All lines via Westgate Sportsbook

Rockets vs. Warriors ATS odds, pick

Line: Warriors -6
Analysis: The Warriors are beatable at Oracle. The Clippers did it twice in the first round, and Houston was right there in both Games 1 and 2. This is a reputation line, and the Warriors are not playing as well as their reputation.
Pick: Rockets

Rockets vs. Warriors O/U line, pick

Line: 220.5 total points
Analysis: Same line as Game 4, but I think it goes under this time. The officials are letting Houston play physically and it’s giving Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry some problems, and I think Golden State picks up its defense at home. Possessions tend to be valued a little more with this much on the line, too, so I don’t think this become a sloppy, full-court run-and-gun game.
Pick: Under

Rockets vs. Warriors money line odds, pick

Odds: Warriors -265, Rockets +215
Analysis: No way you’re taking the Warriors here. Absolutely no value when this feels like something not too far from a coin-flip game. On the other hand, that makes for some decent return on a Rockets flyer bet.
Pick: Rockets