Mavericks vs. Sixers odds, spread: 2019 NBA picks, Dec. 20 predictions from proven model on 16-7 roll

The Dallas Mavericks, without Luka Doncic, will travel to take on Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday evening. Dallas will look to bounce back from a home loss to the Boston Celtics, while Philadelphia will be aiming to stop a two-game losing skid.

Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center. Sportsbooks list the 76ers as 8.5-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Sixers odds. Before you make any Sixers vs. Mavericks picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned almost $800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 8 on a blistering 16-7 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Sixers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Sixers vs. Mavericks:

Mavericks vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -8.5
Mavericks vs. 76ers over-under: 213.5 points
Mavericks vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -383, Mavericks +298
DAL: Dallas is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games
PHI: Philadelphia is 13-15-1 against the spread this season

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model knows that the Mavericks are a different team without Doncic but, in the same breath, Dallas has been quietly effective without its best player this season. Rick Carlisle’s team has outscored its opponent by 6.5 points per 100 possessions with Doncic on the floor this season and, even with sample size caveats, that is an encouraging figure.

The Mavericks can lean on an effective stable of quality role players, especially on the perimeter, and the offense is keyed by Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. from a scoring perspective. The Mavericks are also very effective at generating free throw attempts and, if there is a weakness in Philadelphia’s defense, it comes with too many fouls. It is safe to assume that the Mavericks would not be the best offense in the league, as they are now, without Doncic, but the team has plenty of firepower to challenge Philadelphia.

Why the 76ers can cover

The model is also aware that Philadelphia is 14-1 at home this season. The Sixers have been effective in their own building on both ends and, in a match-up against the Mavericks without Doncic, Brett Brown’s team has a distinct talent advantage. Philadelphia is led by an uber-elite defense, with length and athleticism all over the floor. The 76ers are one of the best teams at eliminating second-chance opportunities for their opponents. Dallas is very good at avoiding turnovers but, with the Sixers providing activity and resistance, it could spur Philadelphia’s offense.

As a general rule, the 76ers are spurred by their defense but, in this match-up, the other end of the floor could be even more friendly. Philadelphia is quietly a top-12 offense in the NBA and the Mavericks are slightly below-average as an overall group. The Sixers have one cardinal weakness in that they commit turnovers at an alarming rate but, considering the conservative defensive scheme from Dallas, that issue shouldn’t be as glaring. Philadelphia is also one of the better teams in the NBA at attacking the rim, which should put plenty of pressure on the Mavericks’ interior defenders.