The Utah Jazz (31-13), fresh off a run of 18 wins in 20 games, will play host to the explosive Dallas Mavericks (28-16) on Saturday. Luka Doncic keys things for Dallas, while Utah is led by Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. The Mavericks will be without Dwight Powell (Achilles) for Saturday and the rest of the season. They acquired Willie Cauley-Stein from the Warriors after Powell’s injury, but the new addition isn’t expected to be in uniform for this matchup.
Tip-off is at 5 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Sportsbooks list Utah as the 4.5-point home favorite, up 1.5 points from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 225.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Jazz odds. Before making any Jazz vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 13 on a blistering 32-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Jazz. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -4.5
- Mavericks vs. Jazz over-under: 225.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -194, Mavericks +167
- DAL: The Mavericks are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last six games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 13-2 against the spread in the last 15 contests
Why the Mavericks can cover
The model knows that the Mavericks rely heavily on their elite offense. Dallas enters the night as the league’s most efficient offensive team overall, landing in the top eight of the NBA in avoiding turnovers, generating offensive rebounds, getting to the free-throw line and shooting efficiency.
The catalyst for much of that effectiveness is Doncic, with the second-year All-Star averaging 29.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game and operating at an obscenely high level. Defensively, the Mavericks also have a couple of strengths, including an above-average propensity for keeping opponents away from the free-throw line and forcing the other team into low-efficiency shot attempts.
Why the Jazz can cover
Despite Doncic’s dominance, Dallas isn’t a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Jazz spread. The model has considered that the Jazz operate in a team concept, and that leads Quin Snyder’s bunch to a top-seven mark on both ends and a stunningly positive recent run of results. However, Utah also has high-end talent to bank on when times get tight.
Gobert is perhaps the NBA’s best defender, averaging 14.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game, and he is flanked by myriad options offensively. Donovan Mitchell leads the way with 24.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game, while Bojan Bogdanovic adds 21.1 points and converts 42 percent of his 3-point attempts. Utah should have no trouble scoring against Dallas as a result of the firepower.
How to make Mavericks vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, as Doncic projects to score just 24.5 points against Utah, falling well below his average. Bogdanovic also comes in below his scoreline baseline in projections. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over percent of simulations.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jazz vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
