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Liberty vs. Morgan State odds: 2019 The Islands of the Bahamas Showcase picks, predictions from proven model

The Liberty Flames look to stay perfect on the season when they take on the Morgan State Bears in the opening game of the 2019 The Islands of the Bahamas Showcase. The Flames (5-0), who tied with Lipscomb for the Atlantic Sun Conference championship at 14-2 and were 29-7 overall in 2018-19, were 2-3 on neutral courts a year ago, while the Bears (3-2), who finished 11th in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference at 4-12 and were 9-21 overall last season, were 1-1 on neutral courts in 2018-19. Friday’s tip-off from Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau, The Bahamas, is set for 11 a.m. ET. Morgan State leads the all-time series 3-1, winning the last meeting 51-50 on Nov. 26, 2014. The Flames are 14-point favorites in the latest Liberty vs. Morgan State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 125.5. Before making any Liberty vs. Morgan State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model and see what it has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against-the-spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Liberty vs. Morgan State. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and has generated an extremely strong against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 70 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Liberty vs. Morgan State:

  • Liberty vs. Morgan State spread: Liberty -14
  • Liberty vs. Morgan State over-under: 125.5 points
  • Liberty vs. Morgan State money line: Liberty -1198, Morgan State +687
  • Liberty is averaging 65.8 points per game
  • Morgan State is averaging 42.2 rebounds per game this season

Liberty is off to its best start since 1991 and is one of 12 teams in Division I with a record of 5-0 or better. Of the 200 minutes played this season, the Flames have trailed a total of just five minutes, 46 seconds. Through five games, Liberty, which is fifth in the country in scoring defense, has allowed 259 points (51.8 average), the fewest during the school’s Division I history and fewest since they allowed 242 in 1984.

Offensively, the Flames have been led by senior guard Caleb Homesley, who is averaging a team-high 14 points per game to go along with 6.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists. In his last game, Homesley poured in 25 points, while grabbing nine rebounds and adding four assists against East Carolina. He missed the game against Navy with an undisclosed injury and is questionable for Friday’s contest.

But just because the Flames are playing well, does not guarantee they will win or cover the Liberty vs. Morgan State spread on Friday.

That’s because Morgan State has won two in a row and is coming off a big 88-52 win over Regent. The Bears are led by senior guard Stanley Davis, who is averaging 12.8 points and 5.2 rebounds and is shooting 59 percent from the floor and 80 percent from the free throw line. Morgan State is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.

Junior forward Troy Baxter is a force inside and already has 13 blocked shots, tied for 36th in the country and leads the Bears with 6.8 rebounds per game. Sophomore guard Sherwyn Devonish has scored in double figures in all five games and is averaging 10.8 points and 4.8 rebounds. He scored 12 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the win over George Washington last week.

So who wins Morgan State vs. Liberty? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Morgan State vs. Liberty spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,700 on its college basketball picks the last three years, and find out.