Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers will host Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz on Friday in the second game for both squads. LeBron James and AD couldn’t overcome Kawhi Leonard in their first game despite an unexpected 28-point outburst from offseason acquisition Danny Green. They’ll try to pick up their first win of the season against Donovan Mitchell’s revamped Utah Jazz. Utah’s Bojan Bogdanovic is reportedly out after spraining his ankle in the season-opener, while Rajon Rondo is questionable for the Lakers with a calf injury. Tipoff is at 10:30 p.m ET from the Staples Center. Sportsbooks list the Lakers as 3.5-point home favorites, up a half-point from the opener, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216 in the latest Lakers vs. Jazz odds. Before you make any Jazz vs. Lakers picks, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now it has locked in on Jazz vs. Lakers. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows that with Davis added to the equation, the Jazz project to be at a serious disadvantage on the majority of defensive possessions. Utah might be in trouble in this game if they can’t lean on their defense because the offense is a work in progress. Their opening night starting five featured only two familiar faces in Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Previous offensive facilitator Ricky Rubio has been replaced by Mike Conley, who made just 1-of-16 shots in his Jazz debut. It’s clear that it will take Utah some time to work out the kinks on the offensive end, so they will need a strong defensive effort in order to have a chance on the road.
Just because L.A.’s strengths counter Utah’s weaknesses doesn’t mean it will cover the Lakers vs. Jazz spread on Friday.
The model is also well aware that while Utah’s wings might be over-matched physically, the sum is greater than the parts when it comes to the Jazz. This defense is anchored by Gobert, the back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year, but the unit has lacked strong individual defenders after him. Yet, the Jazz have ranked top-three in defensive efficiency in each of the past three years.
The Lakers, on the other hand, are prone to defensive breakdowns as the far less disciplined defensive unit. In their season-opener, the Lakers gave up 25 points on wide-open (no defender within six feet) shots to the Clippers. That’s nothing new for the Lakers, who gave up wide-open looks to opponents at the highest rate (26.6 percent) in the entire NBA last season.
Meanwhile, the Jazz allowed wide-open looks at the league’s second-lowest rate.
So who wins Jazz vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Jazz vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
