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Final Four 2019: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech odds, top picks, predictions from model on 11-5 roll

Boasting a lockdown defense and a highly-efficient offense, the Michigan State Spartans ride into a 2019 Final Four matchup Saturday against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Minneapolis. Michigan State (32-6) has been elite on both ends of the floor this season, ranking fifth in the country in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com. The Spartans enter the game after knocking off No. 1 Duke. Meanwhile, Texas Tech (30-6) and its No. 1-ranked defense have been a virtually unsolvable puzzle for opposing offenses all season. Tipoff is set for 8:49 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Spartans are favored by 2.5 points in the latest Michigan State vs. Texas Tech odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 132. Before locking in any Michigan State vs. Texas Tech picks of your own, be sure to check out the 2019 NCAA Tournament predictions from SportsLine’s projection model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It entered the postseason on an 11-5 run on top-rated plays, and It’s also on fire in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling Auburn’s huge upset of Kentucky in the Elite Eight and nailing 14 Sweet 16 teams. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has zeroed on on Michigan State vs. Texas Tech. We can tell you it is leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread has all the value. That pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model knows that, if the game is close, Michigan State can trust junior point guard Cassius Winston. The Big Ten Player of the Year is the only player in the country this season averaging 18.0 points, 7.0 assists and shooting at least 40.0 percent on 3-pointers. In the win against Duke, he scored a team-high 20 points, dished out 10 assists and took over when Michigan State’s season was on the line.

The model has also factored in the improved play from sophomore Xavier Tillman. In the four 2019 NCAA Tournament games, he is averaging 15.3 points (up from 10.1 this season), 8.5 rebounds (up from 7.3) and shooting 65.7 percent from the field (up from 61.2). The 6-foot-8 forward also teams with Nick Ward and Kenny Goins to help the Spartans defend the paint.

But just because the Spartans are a balanced team doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Michigan State vs. Texas Tech spread in the Final Four 2019.

The Red Raiders will have the best player on the court in Jarrett Culver. A 6-6 guard whom NBA execs can’t wait to draft, Culver averages 18.9 points while scoring with ease in a variety of ways. He can get to the rim, create off the dribble, and shoot over defenders. In the 2019 NCAA Tournament, Culver is averaging 21.5 points and has gotten to the foul line 27 times. 

Texas Tech humiliated Michigan in the Sweet 16, allowing 44 points, and just held 1-seed Gonzaga to its third-lowest scoring game this season. The Red Raiders are 14-6-1 against the spread versus teams like Michigan State that are allowing fewer than 67 points per game.

Who wins Texas Tech vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas Tech vs. Michigan State spread you should back, all from an advanced computer model that’s up over $4,000 the past two seasons

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