Duke vs. Louisville odds, line: 2020 college basketball picks, Jan. 18 predictions from proven computer

The No. 3 Duke Blue Devils will look to continue their mastery over the No. 11 Louisville Cardinals in a key ACC matchup at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C. The Blue Devils (15-2), who are 8-1 on their home floor, are tied for first in the conference with the Cardinals (14-3) with a 5-1 mark. Louisville, meanwhile, is 3-1 on the road and is 5-3 overall after starting the season 9-0. Saturday’s tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET.

Duke, 2-0 against ranked opponents this year, is 23-3 at home since the start of last season. The Blue Devils are eight-point favorites in the latest Louisville vs. Duke odds, up a point from the opening line, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 138.5. You’ll want to see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model before laying any Duke vs. Louisville picks down.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Louisville. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Louisville vs. Duke:

Duke vs. Louisville spread: Duke -8
Duke vs. Louisville over-under: 138.5 points
Duke vs. Louisville money line: Louisville +285, Duke -368
LOU: 3-1 on the road this season
DUKE: Ninth in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9

Why Duke can cover

Duke wins nearly 85 percent of its home games at Cameron Indoor, posting a 900-162 all-time record there, including 542-67 (.889) under coach Mike Krzyzewski. Duke is 234-151 (.608) against ranked opponents under Coach K, including a 154-79 (.661) edge since the 1996-97 season. So far this season, the Blue Devils have taken down then-No. 3 Kansas and then-No. 11 Michigan State, both away from Cameron Indoor.

Sophomore Tre Jones is one of just two players nationally averaging 15-plus points, six-plus assists, four-plus rebounds and two-plus steals, while shooting 45 percent or better from the field, joining sophomore Tyrese Haliburton from Iowa State. Jones has scored in double figures in eight of the past 10 games, including 23 points against Wake Forest last Saturday.

Why Louisville can cover

Even so, the Blue Devils aren’t a lock to cover the Duke vs. Louisville spread in this ACC showdown. That’s because Louisville knows how to win, and is on pace to record its 19th consecutive winning season and 21st over the past 22 years. The Cardinals’ 25 ACC road wins in its six years in the league are the fourth-most in that period. Louisville is eighth in the nation in field-goal percentage defense (.368), 22nd in scoring margin (plus-13.1), 29th in rebound margin (plus-6.6) and 30th in scoring defense (61.6).

Dwayne Sutton continues to be a force for the Cardinals, grabbing nine or more rebounds in five of the last six games. His 13 points and nine rebounds at Pittsburgh were one short of his fifth double-double of the season and 10th of his career. Sutton is third in the ACC in rebounding, averaging 9.1 per game.