The No. 16 Baylor Bears enter the season with high expectations and look to start fast when they take on the Central Arkansas Bears on Tuesday. Baylor, which finished fourth in the Big 12 at 10-8 and 20-14 overall, was 13-5 on its home court in 2018-19. Central Arkansas, which tied for seventh in the Southland Conference at 8-10 and 14-19 overall, was 5-13 on the road a season ago. Tip-off from Ferrell Center in Waco is set for noon ET. Baylor won the only other meeting between the teams, 107-66, on Nov. 10, 2017. The Bears are 24.5-point favorites in the latest Baylor vs. Central Arkansas odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 148.5. Before making any Central Arkansas vs. Baylor picks of your own, see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, crushed its top-rated against-the-spread picks last season, going 211-176 while returning $1,740 to $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has dialed in on Central Arkansas vs. Baylor. We can tell you it’s leaning under, but it’s also generated an against the spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine. 

The model knows Baylor returns two starters from last season as well as junior forward Tristan Clark, whose season ended with a knee injury on Jan. 8. At the time, Clark was leading the team in scoring with 14.6 points per game and averaging 6.3 rebounds. Clark had a strong game against Central Arkansas in their Nov. 10, 2017, meeting, scoring 15 points in 27 minutes of action, but is questionable for Tuesday.

Starters returning include junior guard/forward Mark Vital (6.9 points, 7.2 rebounds) and sophomore guard Jared Butler (10.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists). Baylor, which is 5-0 against the spread in its last five non-conference games, is one of three Big 12 Conference teams that are ranked. Kansas is third and Texas Tech is 13th. 

But just because Baylor returns a solid core from last year does not guarantee it will cover the Baylor vs. Central Arkansas spread on Tuesday. 

That’s because Central Arkansas returns firepower of its own. Leading the way is junior point guard DeAndre Jones, who started all 33 games a season ago. Jones was tied for the second-leading scorer at 12.5 points per game and led the team with 162 assists, second best in the Southland Conference. 

Central Arkansas, 6-2 against the spread in its last eight non-conference games, has a big presence in the middle with seven-foot junior center Hayden Koval, who also started all 33 games in 2018-19. He tied for second-leading scorer (12.5) with Jones, and led the team with 6.3 rebounds per game. He broke the school record for blocked shots 23 games into his sophomore season and now has 179, which is 31 more than the old mark. 

So who wins Central Arkansas vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Central Arkansas vs. Baylor spread to jump on Tuesday, all from the advanced model that was up more than $1,700 on its college basketball picks last season, and find out.