2020 NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Sixers odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 58-32 roll

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Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics face Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in a pivotal Game 3 in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs on Friday. The 76ers remain without the services of Ben Simmons (knee), while Boston’s Gordon Hayward (ankle) is expected to miss the next four weeks. Boston is up 2-0 in this 2020 NBA Playoffs first-round series after winning Game 1 109-101 and Game 2 128-101.

Tip-off for this one is set for 6:30 p.m ET from the HP Field House in Orlando. William Hill lists Boston as the as 5.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points is 217.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Sixers odds. Before making any Sixers vs. Celtics picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. 76ers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for 76ers vs. Celtics:

Celtics vs. 76ers spread: Boston -5.5
Celtics vs. 76ers over-under: 217.5 points
Celtics vs. 76ers money line: Boston -245, Philadelphia +205
BOS: Boston had the second-best ATS record when playing on the road this season, so don’t expect them to be bothered by the neutral location.
PHI: The 76ers are just 3-7 ATS since the Orlando restart.

Why the Celtics can cover

The model has considered that these teams are headed in opposite directions. That was readily apparent in Game 2, which Boston took by 27 points. The Sixers have misused former Boston Celtic standout Al Horford, and their max-contract player Tobias Harris has failed to live up to expectations — shooting just 10-29 through the first two games. Without help from his teammates, Embiid can’t do enough to beat a rock-solid Boston squad on his own.

The Celtics have become accustomed to life without the oft-injured Hayward, and his teammates once again stepped up in his absence in Game 2. Tatum has reached the 32-point mark in each of Boston’s first two playoff games, and Jaylen Brown has been spectacular on both ends of the floor. Kemba Walker saw his minutes limited during the eight-game restart, but he has looked fully healthy in his first two playoff games in a Celtics jersey — scoring 19 and 22 points. With those three operating at a high level on the offensive end and Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis bringing the energy on defense, Boston is simply a much better team than the Simmons-less Sixers.

Why the Sixers can cover

The model has also considered that Embiid and the Sixers are not going to go down easy. The Celtics had Philly in an identical situation in the 2018 playoffs, and Embiid turned up the aggressiveness from Game 3 on. Boston still won the series, but Philly covered the spread in two of the next three games on the back of Embiid’s 22 points and 14 rebounds per game. Boston is even less equipped to deal with Embiid defensively this time around, which is evidenced in his 30-point and 13-rebound average through the first two games of the series.

It’s also entirely possible that this line overreacts to a two-game sample and Philadelphia will bounce-back with some better luck shooting the ball on Friday. Through the first two games of the series, Philly has just a 48 percent effective field-goal percentage on wide-open shots, which is the second-lowest of any team in the playoffs. For reference, their rate was 58.3 percent on such shots during the regular season. If they get some better bounces on Friday, Philly could absolutely cover the Celtics vs. Sixers spread.

How to make Celtics vs. Sixers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Embiid, Tatum, and Brown all to finish well above their scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. 76ers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.