The NBA Draft Lottery will take place Thursday, putting the 14 teams in the mix officially on the clock for October’s NBA Draft. Now the real fun begins: Gaming out how the draft will unfold with the order set in stone.
This draft is especially dependent upon fit, as scouts see no clear favorite to go No. 1 overall this year. If a team at No. 1 needs a guard, perhaps LaMelo Ball gets the call. If a team at No. 1 is looking for a center, maybe it’s James Wiseman who is quickly summoned on draft night.
Each team should take a different approach if its lottery ball is the one that pops out of the machine at No. 1. And lookie here: We’ve actually done the leg work for them, gaming potential No. 1 scenarios and putting together this handy-dandy guide to decide which route teams should take.
Golden State Warriors (14% chance of No. 1 pick)
The pick: Trade it!
I know the appeal and value of earning the No. 1 pick. Really, I do. But the Warriors return Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson and Draymond Green — the core of their dynasty that’s won three of the last five NBA championships. They could move this pick and get immense value with a quality role player later in this draft. It’d be enticing to try and take swings at LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards, but I can’t imagine Golden State would have a hard time moving off this.
Cleveland Cavaliers (14%)
The pick: LaMelo Ball
Holster your outrage, Cavs fans. I know what you’re thinking: Cleveland has taken two guards with its top pick in consecutive years, so why would the franchise take another guard this high? I hear you and empathize, but Ball is in a tier above Collin Sexton and Darius Garland as a far superior passer and playmaker. You embrace the logjam and let the cream rise to the top. He has the highest star potential in this draft, and I would not risk passing on that because of either guard that’s already in place.
Minnesota Timberwolves (14%)
The pick: Onyeka Okongwu
Look, Minnesota’s in win-now mode with Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell in place. So grabbing Onyeka Okongwu at No. 1, while a bit rich, is the tax you pay to ensure a perfect fit.
Is it a reach? Short-sighted? Maybe both! This draft has at least three No. 1 pick contenders, and Okongwu isn’t one of them. Nonetheless, perhaps Okongwu unlocks the Wolves and takes them to a new level. He’s a defensive monster who can defend from paint to perimeter, and he’s ultra-skilled as a post scorer, too. His skill set should set up to perfectly complement what they already have in place in Minnesota, and the hefty price to maximize Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell might be worth it.
Atlanta Hawks (12.5%)
The pick: Isaac Okoro
The Hawks have an already-strong core of youth headlined by Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter and John Collins. They also addressed their center position via free agency by adding Clint Capela. So here they add to that blend with a strong, versatile wing in Okoro. His range in this draft is somewhere between 3-13, so perhaps the Hawks can move out of this spot and still find him in a trade-down scenario. Either way, he’s a defensive menace whose skill set is plug-and-play as a high-level role player.
Detroit Pistons (10.5%)
The pick: LaMelo Ball
Detroit’s future at the point guard position is most uncertain. Derrick Rose is entering the second season of a two-year deal but is “not the future of the team,” as coach Dwane Casey recently told MLive.com. Brandon Knight is a capable guard but not a franchise building block. Ditto for Bruce Brown.
Ball is the upside play that not only addresses its hole at the position, but is also the biggest potential boom. If he hits in the way he could, grows into his frame and develops his shot, the youngest Ball brother could be a multi-time All-Star that helps reposition the Pistons in the East.
New York Knicks (9%)
The pick: LaMelo Ball
Call me crazy — and believe me, someone will! — but I … like what the Knicks are doing? They’ve hired former super-agent Leon Rose to run their operations, have a bright young star in Mitchell Robinson, and RJ Barrett has a ton of untapped potential. There’s no way they can screw this rebuild up! (Right? RIGHT?!)
OK, so maybe they could. It’s the Knicks, after all. But to catalyze this upwards mobility, I’d be thrilled to add a true lead guard in Ball to this mix. They really need a point guard. Ball could unlock a lot of Barrett’s potential — we saw what he could do at Duke alongside a lead guard — and could also give Robinson a real shot in the arm, too. This might be the single-most exciting potential pairing I’ve mocked up.
Chicago Bulls (7.5%)
The pick: James Wiseman
The Bulls could go in a number of different directions here, but selecting 7-foot-1 James Wiseman, a big man seen by many scouts as the top center in this year’s draft, would be a safe move. They seem to have really found something in Coby White, and Zach LaVine’s still only 25 years old. So Wiseman serving as the anchor of Chicago’s front line could bolster their efforts at a rebuild under Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley.
Charlotte Hornets (6%)
The pick: Anthony Edwards
People sleep on the Hornets’ young assets: Devonte’ Graham, PJ Washington, Miles Bridges. Sign me up for them adding Edwards to this mix. The team ranked 28th this season in net offensive rating, so Edwards’ shot-creation and shot-making talents could give them a lift they need as they push toward the next level.
Washington Wizards (4.5%)
The pick: James Wiseman
In a perfect world, Washington will have a healthy Brad Beal and a healthy John Wall rearing and ready to go next season. So, in that perfect world, a big man who could fit into those plans, like James Wiseman, makes perfect sense. He’s 7-1 with a 7-6 wingspan, and he projects as an instant impact defender because of his length and anticipation skills.
Phoenix Suns (3%)
The pick: Tyrese Haliburton
I want to get weird. Let’s get weird, shall we? Tyrese Haliburton isn’t considered to be a No. 1 pick contender, but he’s the No. 1 pick I’d peg for Phoenix. He’s a high IQ guard with great skills, can play both ways and knows how to be successful in any role. Put him next to Devin Booker and let the two blossom into a special backcourt together.
San Antonio Spurs (2.0%)
The pick: Anthony Edwards
The knock on Edwards’ game is that he’s a stat-stuffer who lacks efficiency and struggles as a decision-maker, with wild shot selection and an overall game that doesn’t always contribute to winning. Sounds like the perfect Spurs project. He’d either shape up or sit on the pine with Gregg Popovich, and I can’t imagine any scenario with him in San Antonio in which he doesn’t develop into an All-Star.
Sacramento Kings (1.3%)
The pick: Anthony Edwards
The Kings have a logjam on the wing with Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic, but the money is stacking up. Edwards would give the new decision-makers in Sacramento an option to reset at the position on a team-controlled deal while potentially pairing De’Aaron Fox with an off-ball partner who can create and facilitate in spurts.
New Orleans Pelicans (1.2%)
The pick: LaMelo Ball
What’s better than one Ball brother? That’s right: two Balls! Lonzo’s younger brother has always worked well alongside him, and they were part of a revolutionary Chino Hills team that took high school hoops by storm. Together that duo could again work wonders in the NBA together, and while simultaneously making LaVar Ball one happy, happy man.
Memphis Grizzlies (0.5%)
The pick: Aaron Nesmith
In this longshot scenario, I’ve got the Grizzlies trading out of the No. 1 spot and selecting sharpshooter Aaron Nesmith — an NBA-ready wing who can knock down 3s at a stellar clip. He’s one of the best (if not the best) spot-up shooters available in this draft. Memphis was in the bottom-third of all NBA teams this season from 3-point range, so adding him — and giving Ja Morant another weapon — kills two birds with one stone in a single offseason.
