June 30 might have been the most impactful day in NBA history, after featuring a flurry of free agency moves that will impact the league for years to come. Nearly half the league had the potential to become a free agent during this period, and it feels like nearly half the league has already changed teams.
The league will have a very different look next season. Unless the Los Angeles Lakers land Kawhi Leonard — and by the time you read this, that could very well be the case — the 2020 NBA title feels utterly up for grabs. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 teams ought to have legit hopes of winning it all.
There were a number of stars changing teams. There were also many huge deals being dished around the league, some more puzzling than others. To help sort through what’s been happening — and what possibly will — CBS Sports NBA experts Reid Forgrave, Brad Botkin and James Herbert tackle some of the bigger questions in free agency.
Where will Kawhi Leonard sign?
Reid Forgrave: Maybe if I predict it enough I will speak it into existence. Kawhi will stay with the Raptors on a one-plus-one deal. While it’s true he won’t be able to swim in Lake Ontario mid-season, it’s also true that the Raptors gave Kawhi the perfect front-office situation and the perfect basketball situation. They couldn’t have put on a better pitch to stay than they did in the past 11 months. Kawhi is a basketball obsessive, and he recognizes just how rare it is to find yourself in a culture like that.
Brad Botkin: Lakers. I hate to say it. I think it’s dumb and weak and all of the above. But it’s happening. I would be shocked if it doesn’t. LeBron James will now try to add to his “legacy” of winning championships by showing up at the junior high game with the varsity team. Like, what does it prove that you can win a title with the guy who just won a title without you and ANTHONY DAVIS AS A THIRD WHEEL? It’s laughable. I’m honestly not sure how you even celebrate after that. Do you give it the Kevin Garnett “Anything is possible!” roar like you really did something? It’s pointless, except from the business side of things. There it makes perfect sense. It’s the Lakers. This is a complete blockbuster show. But from a competitive standpoint — you know, the point of sports — it’s a joke.
James Herbert: The only thing I feel comfortable predicting about Leonard’s summer is that he will be “drinking alcohol and eating desserts all the time,” as that’s what he said on Serge Ibaka’s Instagram story after winning the championship. Trying to figure out what he is thinking is folly.
2. What’s been your favorite deal so far in free agency?
Forgrave: The Philadelphia 76ers signing Al Horford. The Sixers’ biggest issue during the postseason — the issue that might have stopped them from making the NBA Finals — was when they hemorrhaged points during the moments starting big man Joel Embiid was off the floor. In Horford, they get the ideal fit: A stretch 4/5 who can both play alongside Embiid in a frontcourt that will dominate both ends of the court as well as a player who can play the 5 when Embiid is on the bench or getting a day of rest. It’s amazing to think that on a day where they lost two starters — Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick — to other teams, the Sixers actually improved their title chances. But that’s what happened on June 30. The Sixers’ defense will be absolutely dominant, not just because of the addition of Horford but because they managed to get the dogged defender Josh Richardson in the Butler sign-and-trade with the Heat.
Botkin: Bojan Bogdanovic to Utah. I love his game, and there’s no way not to love this Jazz team now. Everyone knew they needed to add firepower to become even a fringe threat, and with Bogdanovic and Mike Conley next to Donovan Mitchell, scoring is not going to be the problem it has been for them in the past. Getting Conley was the appetizer. Putting Bogdanovic on this team has Utah looking like the whole meal.
Herbert: JJ Redick going to New Orleans on a two-year, $26.5 million deal. I didn’t see it coming, and the Pelicans now have a crowded backcourt rotation, but I love it for him and for them. This feels a lot like when Redick went to Philadelphia in 2016 — he saw a young, talented team that needed his shooting and leadership. Redick will provide New Orleans’ offense with structure, and he’ll make so many transition 3s.
3. Which deal has left you most perplexed?
Forgrave: The Golden State Warriors signing D’Angelo Russell to a four-year, $117 million contract. What are we doing here, guys? Yes, Russell was an All-Star last season (albeit with an asterisk — he was an injury replacement). And yes, Russell has boatloads of talent. But he’s a terrible defender; a Russell-Steph Curry backcourt will be a defensive disaster. He’ll certainly put up the counting stats — he averaged 21.2 points and 7.0 assists last season as the primary ballhandler for the Nets — but will he help this team win? Maybe Steve Kerr can figure out a way to get the 23-year-old Russell to join in on their share-the-ball philosophy. Maybe Russell can man the 2 with Klay Thompson at the 3 after Thompson returns from his ACL injury. Maybe the Warriors can trade Russell (say, to the Minnesota Timberwolves) in the 2020 offseason, and he can serve as just a bridge during Thompson’s absence. Count me as skeptical on all three counts.
Botkin: Kevon Looney. When the Warriors took the swing for D’Angelo Russell, Looney seemed like a sure goner. I have no idea how he didn’t get better offers than three years, $15 million, or how he turned them down if he did get them. Either way, Looney is huge for Golden State, which was in danger of losing pretty much its entire bench after signing Russell to a max. People who only pay attention to the glamour parts of the Warriors have no clue how important Looney is to them.
Herbert: The literal answer to this question is Kevon Looney’s three-year, $15 million contract. I was perplexed that he didn’t get a more lucrative deal and shocked that the Warriors were able to keep him. In general, the big-man market has been extremely weird — Ed Davis somehow was somehow scooped up on the same two-year, $10 million contract that Frank Kaminsky agreed to, Taj Gibson got $20 million for two years and the DeAndre Jordan deal is in a category by itself.
4. Which free agent will make the biggest difference for his new team next season?
Forgrave: Kevin Durant, obviously, is the free agent who will make the biggest long-term difference for his team. Of course, he will make absolutely zero difference this season as he recovers from his Achilles tear. But come the 2020-21 season, Durant and Kyrie Irving will turn the Brooklyn Nets into one of the most fun teams in the NBA, and a legit title contender. Will K.D. come back as the same player? Likely not. But will he still be a top-10 player in the NBA, if not better? I’d bet on that. Jonathan Tjarks of The Ringer had a perfect comparison of what a post-Achilles Durant could look like: Dirk Nowitzki. I’d take that any day.
As far as the free agent who’ll make the biggest difference for his team this season? I’d pick Kemba Walker. Is Kemba more talented than Kyrie? No. Will the Celtics become a more functional organization with Kemba at point guard than with Kyrie at point guard? One hundred percent. Maybe this team’s ceiling will be lower, unless Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown emerge as a legit superstar. But I think their floor is much higher. And that locker room will be a much more pleasant place to be.
Botkin: Kawhi is the easy answer, but I’ll go with Kemba Walker in Boston. I don’t say this because I think he vaults the Celtics into true contender status, but he will completely change the feel of that team. He will remove the cloud Kyrie hung over everything and make that Celtics team super fun again. And they’ll be good. Anyone sleeping on how great Kemba is, and how capable he is of lifting a team, is in for a surprise. He’ll be the new Damian Lillard in terms of getting on a big stage and opening people’s eyes to what has been there all along.
Herbert: Kawhi Leonard, if he signs with a new team. Actually, whatever he decides to do will make the biggest difference for the team he chooses and the two other teams in the running. You saw what his new team did this past season, right?
5. The three teams that improved the most through free agency are …
Forgrave: The Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers (for reasons explained earlier) and the Utah Jazz. I know Mike Conley wasn’t a free agency addition, but adding Conley via trade helped pave the path toward what the Jazz did in free agency. Conley will help ease some of the creator duties off of Donovan Mitchell, which ought to only make Mitchell a more efficient star. Then the Jazz signed sniper Bojan Bogdanovic — who is coming off a career year in which he averaged 18 points per game and shot 42.5 percent from 3 — as well as Ed Davis, a big man who does all the little things. Yes, a lot of pressure will be on Rudy Gobert to keep the Jazz as an elite defensive unit. But this Jazz team should now be considered a title contender in a way they weren’t a month ago.
Botkin: The Lakers, because I believe they’re going to get Kawhi. The Jazz, who would be a threat to come out of the West in a fair and just world in which the Lakers didn’t rig the game. And the Pelicans, who are, in my honest opinion, somehow BETTER than they were with Anthony Davis. Not just better off for the future. Better right now. David Griffin is putting on a clinic. Now, the caveat to this is the Nets, who became a title contender with their moves, but not until next season. This year, with basically Kyrie Irving in the place of D’Angelo Russell, I don’t think they’re significantly better.
Herbert: The Nets (duh), the Jazz (they now have an elite offense and an elite defense) and the Pelicans (they are suddenly so deep) have done the best for themselves so far. I will have to amend this answer if Leonard changes teams.
